The Baltimore Ravens suffered a really terrible loss in Week 8 to the Cleveland Browns on the road as -8 favorites, but I guess to some, it really wasn’t a huge shock. With QB Deshaun Watson out of the lineup, replaced by Jameis Winston, and a new offensive coordinator, the Browns saw a spark from their offense for the first time this season. Plus, Baltimore’s defense is very bad. Their offense still generated 24 points, however, and continues to be one of the most potent units in the NFL.
While 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson has a lot to do with their success, one of the best offseason acquisitions for any team continues to dominate for Baltimore. Running back Derrick Henry has been one of the best players at his position for a long time now, pretty much ever since he was drafted out of Alabama. He’s a bruising runner that can bowl over anyone, but he also is famous for his long touchdown runs, and has the speed to go 90+ yards without defenders catching him. That combination of size and speed makes him a freak of nature, and teams have been doing everything they can to stop him.
In fact, no RB in the NFL has faced an 8-man box more often than Henry has, seeing the defense load up to stop him 36.55% of the time. Of course, some of this also has to do with the serious threat that Jackson poses as a runner at QB, but they are also very aware that Henry currently leads the league in rushing and is extremely dangerous. Just think about that for a second. Teams know the Ravens want to run the ball with Henry and Jackson, loading up to stop the run against them more than any other team, and yet they still lead the league in team rushing yards and Henry leads all rushers. He has 946 yards rushing and nine touchdowns already.
It’s pretty remarkable that they are able to still have so much success. Now, they go up against the Denver Broncos defense at home in Baltimore. The Broncos have been one of the better defenses in football so far, allowing just 15 points per game, and they have also been stout against the run. They are allowing 106.4 yards on the ground per game, which is seventh-fewest in the league. You can pretty much guarantee that they will be gearing up to face the Baltimore rushing attack, and on paper, this should be a difficult matchup for Henry.
However, we all know that he has defied the on paper numbers, so you really can’t take very much from them. Teams used to be able to stack the box and make Jackson throw on them, but with Henry now in the backfield, that has simply not been working. The Ravens are a -9.5 favorite over the Broncos this weekend, so oddsmakers clearly think that they are the better team here, even though they have identical 5-3 records.
I’ll be very interested to see how Denver plans to play the Ravens, and if they will keep stacking the box like others have. Perhaps they will try something else, because it has not been working for anyone to this point.
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