Burdge: What I'm Betting Tonight

Here are three of the bets that I love for tonight's Monday Night Football Game between the Raiders and Chiefs. BetQL subscribers can see all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's MLB playoff games! Start your free trial today!

Chiefs -4 1H Spread vs. Raiders (-115, BetMGM)

I think the Chiefs are going to have a huge game against the Raiders and I really like them to cover this first-half spread. BetQL happens to have some trends in favor of them to do this as well: While coaching K.C., Andy Reid is 12-2 ATS in the first half when playing against a team with a winning percentage of .250 or less, and 28-11 ATS in the first half after having won three out of the last four games. The Chiefs are 3-1 ATS in the first half this season, while the Raiders are 2-2, so the Chiefs have all the advantages tonight when it comes to covering the first-half spread.

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Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+125, DraftKings)
I love the chances for Mahomes to hit this over. This number seems low based on the number he's hit in a couple games already this season; he had five TD passes in Week 1 and three just last week, so I think there is certainly great value in him to go over on this total against the Raiders, who have allowed seven passing TDs through four games.

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Travis Kelce to Score A Touchdown (-122, Caesars)
Kelce has three touchdowns through the first four weeks of this season, so I see a great opportunity for him to score another touchdown against the Raiders. He had one against the Cardinals in Week 1, another against the Colts in Week 3 and one more last week against the Buccaneers. Plus, the Raiders have already allowed seven TD receptions through four games, so Kelce has a great chance to score again tonight.

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