Week 5 NFL Public & Sharp Betting Report

We're past the quarter mark of the 2022 NFL season already, and time has flown by. Seems like just yesterday we were watching that terrible game between the Buccaneers and Cowboys to start us off, doesn't it? We have had far too many awful games on primetime this season in my opinion. Broncos vs. Colts on Thursday night was just another example of the disgusting product we have received up to this point, but I gave out the under, and that cashed easily. Scoring is down all across the league this season, and our model has taken note of that and adjusted accordingly to the surprising resurgence of defense we have seen so far.

Not only do we have our model's best bets and expert articles, but we also have live data tracking what the public is betting, where the sharps are betting, and how the lines are moving. When you subscribe to BetQL, you'll gain access to all of that real-time data, as well as the best bets and key trends for every game.

Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview of some of BetQL's most helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NFL Week 5. Start your free trial today!

Line Movement: 49ers at Panthers

The biggest line movement of the weekend comes in the San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers game. Originally, the 49ers were favored by -3 points, but that went away very quickly. The line has moved a ton, and now San Francisco is sitting as a -6.5 favorite on the road. This was possibly the most obvious line movement we have had all season. The 49ers are coming off of a huge win over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, and that will weigh heavily on the minds of bettors. That, and the Panthers are just terrible in every facet of the game of American football. Baker Mayfield may be the worst quarterback in the NFL, and he is one pick away from being benched for Sam Darnold. Against this defense? Sheesh.

What this all means is that books have seen a massive influx of cash coming in on the 49ers. You can clearly see this on our "Line Movement" dashboard, which will show you the difference between the opening line and current number. BetQL's star ratings change immediately when the sportsbooks change theirs, so you can always count on us to have the most updated number.

See our model's best bets for this game below and be sure to check out all line movement data for this week's slate of games!

Sharp Money: Patriots ATS vs. Lions

This week, the sharps seem to be going with Bailey Zappe and the New England Patriots as their top pick against the Lions. The money is pouring in on New England. We've already seen some line movement here, with the Patriots going from -1.5 favorites all the way to -3. The respected players are backing the rookie QB at home in New England, and you can't blame them really. Belichick against Jared Goff and the Lions?

Detroit against Belichick is a disaster to bet on, and it doesn't happen very often. You want to play the Lions when they are huge underdogs, and that obviously is not the case here at just +3. Zappe was great in college, and apparently the sharps like his chances against this terrible Lions defense. A whopping 73% of the money is on the Patriots, but just 45% of the total tickets, a difference of 28% (the "Pro Betting Percentage"). Meanwhile, Detroit has 55% of the total tickets but just 27% of the money.

Therefore, sharp bettors are hammering the Patriots to cover at home. This data is available for every game of the slate for BetQL subscribers, so they always know which bet the high-rollers are backing. Compare this with our best bets for this game below.

Public Bet: Titans -2 at Commanders

Everyone is betting against the Commanders because of how terrible they have looked this season to this point, so it isn't shocking in the slightest to see all of this public money coming in on the Tennessee Titans. At the time of this writing, 75% of the total bets against the spread in this game are on the Titans -2. Now, why they are rushing so hard to the window to bet on the Titans of all teams is beyond me, but it's true that Washington is truly a disaster.

Betting against the public can be a smart strategy, though, when it creates value on the opposite side. It doesn't always pan out, so you always have to be mindful of how you're factoring in this data, but BetQL will help you make these decisions with our model projections and analysis. Find out if our model is aligned with the public:

Take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is projecting for NFL Week 5! Start your free trial today!