Week 3 NFL Line Movement Recap: Saints vs. Eagles and Dolphins vs. Seahawks Betting Lessons

Week 3 of the NFL season gave us some fascinating betting line movements, highlighting both overreactions and warranted adjustments in the market. In the highly anticipated matchup between the Saints and Eagles, a dramatic shift in the spread led to some surprising results, showing that betting based on hype can backfire. Meanwhile, the Dolphins vs. Seahawks game saw a massive drop in the total due to injury news, and this adjustment proved to be spot on. Let’s break down how these key line movements shaped the outcomes and what we can learn for future NFL wagers.

Saints Prove You Can’t Believe The Hype

One of the most wagered on games this past weekend was the matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints. This line opened with the Eagles as a -3.5 favorite pretty much everywhere in the market, as the Eagles were still considered to be a serious contender and some didn’t believe that New Orleans was legit. However, Philly’s loss to the Falcons in prime time soured the taste the public had for them, and this line moved quickly after that.

It is rare you see a line move 6 points without a QB on either side being ruled out, but that is what happened here. The Eagles went from -3.5 to +3 in the market, a huge move through the zero, and becoming underdogs overnight. This turned out to be a huge overreaction by the books and the public, however. Philly ended up winning this weekend outright by, you guessed it, three points. A 15-12 final score with an original set line of -3.5 for Philly, almost spot on. This goes to show you that you can’t just assume things each week in this league.

New Orleans couldn’t be stopped for two weeks offensively, and the Eagles defense looked terrible coming into this game. The Saints scored 12 points. Don’t bet on teams, bet on numbers in the NFL.

Dolphins vs. Seahawks O/U Movement Warranted

While the Saints game was a perfect example of the market overreacting to a team’s performance, the movement on the total of the Dolphins game was an example of when a line actually warrants a massive move. QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered yet another concussion last week, which will sideline him for multiple weeks, so he was ruled out for this game. As such, the total shifted massively in the wake of that news, crashing from 47.5 to 41.5. That is also a huge move of 6 points, but this time, it actually made a lot more sense.

Miami never even had a pulse in this game. Their offense was a disaster with QB Skylar Thompson filling in for the injured Tua, and they managed to scrape up a measly 3 points the entire game. Thompson probably isn’t even a serviceable backup in the NFL. Their defense played admirably, holding the Seahawks to 17 points for most of the game until a late garbage touchdown to clinch a 24-3 win. With only 27 total points scored, the total still soared under in this one despite the 6-point shift that way.

Injuries actually mean something in this league in terms of line movement. Previous performance means nothing.

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