Week 18 NFL Player Incentives & Best Corresponding Prop Bets

Week 18 Player Incentives & Props

Believe it or not, Week 18 is already here and the final week of the regular season should feature a ton of drama, as always. Contract incentives and NFL records are on the line and after looking through all of them, I identified three bets to take a shot on. Scroll down to take a look at them!

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Justin Jefferson Over 193.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bears (+440, FanDuel)

With 194+ receiving yards, Jefferson would break Calvin Johnson’s single-season mark of 1,964. The crazy part is that this number isn’t out of reach for him whatsoever. In fact, against Johnson’s Lions back on December 11, Jefferson racked up 223 receiving yards and put up ridiculous totals against the Bills (193) and Packers (184) earlier in the year. Coming off a shocking dud of a performance (one catch on five targets for 15 yards) against Green Bay last week, I expect him to bounce back and push for this record against a Chicago defense that he crushed for 12 catches on 13 targets for 154 yards back in October. 

Before the season started, I predicted Jefferson would break Johnson’s all-time receiving yards mark, a bold hypothesis that multiple Vikings blogs picked up and discussed. In Kevin O’Connell’s innovative offense, the superstar wideout has thrived and should eat against a Bears defense that’s essentially playing for nothing in Week 18. At +440, this is clearly worth a shot.

Patrick Mahomes 430+ Passing Yards vs. Raiders (+650, DraftKings)

With 430+ passing yards, Mahomes would break Peyton Manning’s single-season passing record of 5,477. Interestingly, he’s gotten to this point after KC traded away speedster Tyreek Hill, which is further proof that the Chiefs’ offensive scheme is the best of the best. Since the Chiefs can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win over the Raiders in this game (or a Bills loss to the Patriots), expect Mahomes to play the whole game and rack up some gaudy numbers. 

The MVP favorite threw for 293 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in a one-point win over the Raiders earlier in the season, but with Vegas’ season essentially already over, I expect him to do whatever he wants to do with the ball in his hands. Don’t be shocked if he gets over this 430+ yard mark to set the all-time record and I’m absolutely going to take a shot at +650.

Christian Kirk 85+ Receiving Yards & Zay Jones 80+ Receiving Yards & Evan Engram 55+ Receiving Yards (+2000, BetMGM’s One Game Parlay)

The Jaguars and Titans will square off for the AFC South crown in Week 18 and there are three contract incentives to take note of on Jacksonville’s side. Christian Kirk needs two receptions (78 to 80) to earn $500k in contract incentives and 91 yards (1,009 to 1,110) to receive another $500k. He’s gotten over 91 receiving yards five times this year so far and can walk away with $1 million in incentive money if he has a big day.

Meanwhile, his teammates Zay Jones and Evan Engram also have money on the line. Jones needs two catches (78 to 80) to earn $250k and 92 yards (802 to 900) to grab an additional $500k. He had eight catches for 77 yards and a touchdown in his first game against the Titans this year. Engram needs 61 receiving yards (739 to 800) to earn $200k. This Tennessee defense has been horrendous against opposing tight ends all year long, so the opportunity will be there. 

While winning the game obviously matters most, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Trevor Lawrence connect with his three top targets and make things happen through the air en route to the playoff berth. You can make this your one-game parlay at BetMGM with +2000 odds right now!