BetMGM Staff Picks For NFL Week 9

BetMGM Staff Picks For NFL Week 9

Each week, writers and editors for The Roar will dig through the NFL odds to find their favorite bets for that particular week. Here are the staff’s favorite plays for Week 9.

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Chase Kiddy (Season Record 4-4)

Pick: Panthers +7.5 (at Bengals)

Carolina never got priced like a bad team in the NFL spreads market, which is one reason why the Panthers were such a lousy cover team prior to Matt Rhule being fired. 

Now, the NFL betting markets have completely changed their tune.

Rhule has been fired. Christian McCaffrey has been traded. The Panthers are a proper underdog, catching real points – more than a touchdown – in a game in Cincinnati.

The curious thing, though, is that Carolina has a much clearer offensive identity now under interim coach Steve Wilks. The Panthers run the ball effectively with D’Onta Foreman and Chubba Hubbard; they’ve outrushed both of their opponents since McCaffrey was traded.

In this spot, the Bengals must lay seven and the hook on a short week. Ja’Marr Chase is out for the next few weeks, so the unstoppable Joe Burrow-to-Chase offense is suddenly very stoppable. 

More importantly, the Bengals just got bodied by a strong, multi-headed run game. Cleveland rolled up 268 rushing yards on Monday Night Football on the back of a 14-minute advantage in time of possession. Did I mention Cincinnati ranks No. 25 in PFF’s rush defense rankings?

I expect Carolina to follow a similar blueprint. Cincinnati is facing a lot of disadvantages in this particular spot; why wouldn’t I take seven and the hook?

Colton Pool (Season Record: 4-4)

Pick: Chargers -3 (at Falcons)

There’s a larger talent discrepancy between the Chargers (4-3) and the Falcons (4-4) than their records would indicate.

The Falcons struggled to beat the Panthers last week in overtime and before that lost two of three games. The Chargers are coming off a bye and have won three of their last four.

Both teams have been fine on offense. The Chargers (23.4 per game) and the Falcons (25 per game) are in the top third of the league in points scored.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers are 16th in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. The Falcons are 31st. 

Atlanta’s pass defense DVOA is 30th. I expect Justin Herbert to have a great day against this Falcons secondary.

Andrew Doughty (Season Record 3-5)

Pick: Chiefs 1H -6.5 (vs. Titans)

Since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018, the Chiefs have been one of the best first-half betting teams in the NFL. Only the Ravens have a better first-half ROI over that time.

The Titans have climbed back into AFC relevance after an 0-2 start but they haven’t been particularly impressive in doing so. I’m not overthinking betting on a dominant first-half team against one struggling to sustain drives, especially early in games.

Ryan Hannable (Season Record: 2-5-1)

Pick: Raiders -1.5 (at Jacksonville)

Yes, I lost with the Raiders a week ago when they were blown out by the Saints in New Orleans, but this is a new week and I’m going back to them.

Las Vegas spent the week in Florida with its sole focus being beating the Jaguars on Sunday. I just cannot see the Raiders losing two straight games coming out of their bye to the Saints and Jaguars.

The Raiders are much better than their 2-5 record indicates, and it feels like a matter of time before they get things going in the right direction. After a decent start to the season, the Jags have lost five straight. 

Las Vegas is a much more talented team than Jacksonville, and expect that to hold true on Sunday.

BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.