Staff Longshot Picks For Vikings-Rams Wild Card Showdown

After a big weekend of NFL games, the Wild Card Round of these playoffs continues tonight when the Rams face off against the Vikings.

And the BetQL staff has found our best bets for you in tonight’s matchup!

Dan Karpuc: Cooper Kupp 100+ Receiving Yards & Anytime TD (+1200, BetMGM)

As I wrote about in my Player Prop Picks article, I love Kupp’s outlook in this matchup against the Vikings. Since he was essentially a non-factor down the back stretch of the regular season and sat out the final game due to rest, this pick may seem like it’s coming out of nowhere, but there are a ton of reasons to like him. First, he’s a Super Bowl champion and former postseason hero for this Rams franchise. When the bright lights get bright, he has traditionally shined. Second, this Vikings defense has allowed the most receptions, 2nd-most targets and 2nd-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season. Therefore, LA’s passing game should have success and since Minnesota will likely be mainly focused on Puka Nacua, Kupp should be able to make things happen and pick up targets. Third, Minnesota plays zone defense and blitzes an NFL-high 38.9% of the time, allowing 12.3 completions on 18.5 targets to slot receivers per game. Kupp and his teammates will be dedicating this game to victims of the LA wildfires and although this game won’t take place on their home field, they’ll be playing with urgency and a relentless desire to get the win. He accomplished this feat twice in 12 games played (16.67% hit rate) during the regular season, so with 7.69% implied odds, I’m happy to take a shot on this with a correlated SGP.

Lucy Burdge: Vikings win 31-27 Over Rams Correct Score (+20000, BetMGM)

The Vikings covered in four of their last five games of the season, all of those as the favorite, as they are here. And in his last three games, Stafford was held to under 200 passing yards and Cooper Kupp caught only four passes for 53 yards in that time, so I think the Vikings can win this one and cover. And if you want to take an exact score bet, Vikings win 31-27 (+20000, BetMGM) is an enticing one, as the Vikings are averaging four more points scored per game than the Rams, at 25 to their 21. So I like the Vikings to cover and win by this margin.

Matt Horner: Rams -8 & Puka Nacua 125+ Receiving Yards (+1400, BetMGM)

As someone who has been looking to fade the Minnesota Vikings in the playoffs for a while now, I will gladly back the Rams in a reverse teaser to win by at least nine points here. So far in these playoffs, only one game did not end with a margin of at least 10 points, and that was last night between the Commanders and Bucs. Every other game was at least a double-digit blowout. Houston was a +3 underdog and won by nearly 20 points, and the Rams can certainly do the same here. I also think WR Puka Nacua could be in for a legacy game. Minnesota’s defense has been very lucky to face one of the weakest schedules in the NFC, and they still ranked 28th against the pass this season. Nacua could have a field day against them, and for this longshot, I think he can get to 125 yards.

Kate Constable: TJ Hockenson 2+ Touchdowns (+1800, BetMGM) 

The Rams have struggled defending opposing tight ends all season. They’re allowing the second-most receptions (6.24), fourth-most yards (64.76) and ninth-most touchdowns per game to the position. Hockenson only had two receptions last weekend against the Lions, but was targeted eight times. He also didn’t play in the Vikings' first meeting with L.A., which might make game planning against him a bit more difficult for the Rams. L.A. has also allowed touchdowns to three tight ends in its last two games, so at +1800, I like Hockenson to find the endzone twice tonight.

Ameer Tyree: TJ Hockenson First Touchdown Scorer (+1300, BetMGM)

The first touchdown was a pass from Sam Darnold to second-string tight end Josh Oliver the first time these two teams met this season and the Rams will be determined to make someone other than Justin Jefferson beat them in round two. Hockenson has recorded more than twice as many receptions and receiving yards than Oliver since making his 2024 debut and will be one of the Vikings’ top options in the red zone if Jefferson is covered. Even if he hasn’t caught a touchdown pass this season. It’s hard to argue against Darnold’s third most targeted pass catcher with odds like these.

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