Saints at Falcons Odds, Best Bets & Prediction

Somehow, the New Orleans Saints have made it to Week 18 with a chance to get to the playoffs. Of course, they will have to take care of business against the Atlanta Falcons to have a chance. It’s worth noting that the Falcons won 27-25 in New Orleans earlier this season, although the Saints have won on their last three trips to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Early in the week, the Saints are listed as 4.5-point road favorites with the over/under set at 40 points.

Atlanta Falcons Preview

Atlanta’s playoff hopes were officially crushed last week when the Falcons lost to the Bills. Despite holding a surprising lead at halftime, the Falcons failed to score in the final 30 minutes, eliminating them from the playoffs and securing a losing season in the process. However, the possibility of sweeping the Saints for the first time since 2016 and ending their playoff chances should help keep Atlanta motivated.

In the end, the Falcons just haven’t had enough help around Matt Ryan this year. They are averaging just 18.3 points per game on the season and their lack of playmakers is why the Atlanta offense can experience prolonged slumps. The running game has struggled to get going while rookie tight end Kyle Pitts is the team’s leading receiver. Despite how impressive Pitts has been, it says a lot about an offense when a rookie tight end is the best playmaker.

Defensively, the Falcons haven’t been much better despite some promising players at all three levels. The overall depth just hasn’t been there this year, which is why the Falcons have allowed the fourth-most points in the league. They’ve allowed at least 28 points in half of their games this season, which isn’t a winning formula with such a limited offense. Specifically, the team’s pass rush has let down the Atlanta defense. The Falcons have just 17 sacks in 16 games, which has continuously left their secondary exposed against quality offensive teams.

New Orleans Saints Preview

The Saints have a rather narrow path to the playoffs heading into Week 18, although they do have one. Obviously, the 8-8 Saints need to beat Atlanta, but they also need the 49ers to lose to the Rams. Both games will kick off at the same time, so the Saints will play this week knowing that they have a chance. With three wins in four games, New Orleans should also come in with confidence that things will work out for them.

Over the last month, the New Orleans defense has almost singlehandedly kept the Saints alive. The Saints have allowed a total of 39 points over their last four games, lowering their season average to just 19.7 points per game. That stretch includes a shutout of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, which means the Saints should feel confident that they can stop any team. Even with some key players missing from their vaunted secondary last week, the Saints were dominant, holding Carolina to just 178 total yards and holding a shutout in the second half thanks to seven sacks. The front-seven is close to full health, including the pass-rushing duo of Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. If the New Orleans secondary can get a player or two back as well, the Saints will be in great shape defensively.

Of course, the offensive side of the ball is another matter. The silver lining is that Taysom Hill was back on the field last week. But just because he’s a better option than rookie Ian Book doesn’t mean Hill is the team’s savior. He’s only completed 57% of his passes this season with more interceptions than touchdowns. Hill and the New Orleans offense will still have to grind out yards on the ground with Alvin Kamara. That tends to make the Saints a little predictable and put a lot of attention on Kamara, who had fewer rushing yards than Hill last week. Keep in mind that the Saints have just one offensive touchdown in their last three games.

Falcons vs Saints Prediction

Given the obvious limitations that the Saints have offensively, a 4.5-point spread on the road is a lot. Even if the New Orleans defense continues to dominate an equally limited Atlanta offense, the Saints are going to have to score points if they expect to win and cover. As mentioned, they have just one touchdown over their last three games, which doesn’t inspire much confidence, giving the Falcons a chance to keep this close and maybe pull off the upset.