Ravens at Texans: Christmas Day Best Bet

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good wager on this game between the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans. The NFL simply can’t go a single holiday without being on our TV screens, as the ratings are massive as people flock to the screen to avoid talking with estranged family members before and after dinner. You really have to give it to them, they absolutely know and are willing to do whatever it takes to expand the brand, including forcing these teams to play nearly three games in a week.

The Ravens are coming off a huge win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, covering the -7 spread in Charm City. They have now covered and won two straight games since that loss they took at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles, and the public is firmly back on their bandwagon it seems. Right now at DraftKings Sportsbook, 95% of the handle is on the Ravens moneyline to win the game, and a whopping 92% of money is on them to cover the spread. The line has swung in their favor from the open, moving from -2.5 to -4.5 at some places.

The reason for that is Houston taking the loss to the Chiefs yesterday 27-19, and losing WR Tank Dell to a really bad leg injury that will sideline him for at least the rest of this season. The weapons are starting to run thin for QB C.J. Stroud, who is himself going through a bit of a sophomore slump in 2024 as opposed to his fantastic rookie season. It hasn’t helped that the Texans have refused to invest enough in his offensive line, as he has been sacked the second-most of any QB in football, just behind rookie Caleb Williams in Chicago.

Now, let’s take a look at the lines for the game and where I am currently at with betting on it. The best line on the spread you can find for the Ravens is -4, while there are some books offering +4.5 for the Texans. Personally, I haven’t wagered on this game as of yet, and I probably wouldn’t bet the spread at the current number. The total is 46.5 in the market, which again is a tough number to bet into. I could see this game ending 27-20 in many different scenarios, but I could also see something like 23-17.

I’m considering a same-game parlay for this game of the two sides that I like the most, but at a safer line than what is currently offered. At BetMGM, you can get Ravens ML combined with Under 47.5 for +180 odds as I currently write this. To me, I think the Ravens will end up winning this game in the end, but I don’t feel exactly comfortable laying -4. I want to take the under, but again, 46.5 isn’t what I am looking for. I’d feel far better at 47.5, as that extra point could really matter at a very common final score in the NFL.

I don’t like betting parlays unless I feel quite comfortable with the two outcomes, and at +180 odds, I’ll probably play this for a half unit as something to sweat for the game.