NFL Week 7 Public & Sharp Betting Report
NFL line movement, sharp bets and heavy public favorites for Week 7
Matthew Horner - Oct 20, 2022, 6:59pm EDT
Week 7 is here in the NFL, and time has flown by since the start of the year. One trend to note is how low-scoring games have been this season. Scoring is down all across the league in 2022, and our model has taken note of that and adjusted accordingly to the surprising resurgence of defense we have seen so far.
Not only do we have our model's best bets and expert articles, but we also have live data tracking what the public is betting, where the sharps are betting, and how the lines are moving. When you subscribe to BetQL, you'll gain access to all of that real-time data, as well as the best bets and key trends for every game.
Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview of some of BetQL's most helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NFL Week 7. Start your free trial today!
Note: data below was found on BetQL as of 7:00pm EST on Thursday, October 20.
Line Movement: Jets at Broncos
The biggest line movement of the weekend comes in the New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos game. Originally, the Broncos were favored by -3.5 points, but that went away very quickly. The line has moved a ton, and now this is a pick 'em. This was expected and shouldn't be a shock to anyone. The Jets are coming off of a win over the Green Bay Packers on the road, a team that has been disappointing all season long, but was still a 7-point favorite in the game. New York has been surprisingly good this season, and the hype train is starting to build for them. Denver has looked absolutely atrocious all season.
What this all means is that books have seen a massive influx of cash coming in on the Jets. You can clearly see this on our "Line Movement" dashboard, which will show you the difference between the opening line and current number. BetQL's star ratings change immediately when the sportsbooks change theirs, so you can always count on us to have the most updated number.
See our model's best bets for this game below and be sure to check out all line movement data for this week's slate of games!
Sharp Money: Colts ATS vs. Titans
This week, the sharps seem to be going with Matt Ryan and the Indianapolis Colts against the Tennessee Titans at home. What is odd is that the line has moved in favor of Tennessee, from -1.5 to -2.5. The public is heavy on the Titans, which isn't super surprising considering how disappointing the Colts have been. But we have sharp action on the other side.
The Colts' offense has been quite embarrassing, and there are several areas that you can point the finger at for that. Matt Ryan has been bad, and he's turned the ball over at an alarming rate so far this year. That could be because he's totally washed, or because his offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. Head coach Frank Reich also has made some really questionable decisions to put him on the hot seat. A whopping 91% of the money is on the Cowboys, but just 59% of the total tickets, a difference of 32% (the "Pro Betting Percentage"). Meanwhile, Philadelphia has 41% of the total tickets but just 9% of the money.
Therefore, sharp bettors are hammering the Colts to cover on the road. This data is available for every game of the slate for BetQL subscribers, so they always know which bet the high-rollers are backing. Compare this with our best bets for this game below.
Public Bet: Jets EVEN at Broncos
Back to this game again, and there is a reason it has had the biggest line move of any game this week. The public is all over this team, and all that money is starting to show as it pours in on the Jets. Of course, public money can't move the line this far on its own, so sharp money is also coming in. At the time of this writing, 87% of the total bets against the spread in this game are on the Jets (EVEN). Everyone is on the Gang Green bandwagon against the inept Broncos.
Betting against the public can be a smart strategy, though, when it creates value on the opposite side. It doesn't always pan out, so you always have to be mindful of how you're factoring in this data, but BetQL will help you make these decisions with our model projections and analysis. Find out if our model is aligned with the public:
Take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of our best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for college football! Start your free trial today!