NFL Week 17 Sharp Betting Report
NFL line movement, sharp bets and heavy public favorites for Week 17
Matthew Horner - Dec 30, 2022, 2:25pm EST
Week 17 in the NFL promises to be an exciting one. We are coming down to the wire here, and during the final stretch, it's time to start banking some serious cash. BetQL is your one-stop source for best bets, live public and sharp betting data, written analysis, exclusive sportsbook offers, and all of the game-by-game analytics and data you can dream of.
Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview of some of BetQL's most helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NCAAF Bowl Games. Start your free trial today!
Note: data below was found on BetQL at 1:00pm EST on Thursday, December 29. Subject to change.
Line Movement: Steelers vs. Ravens Total
The biggest line movement of the weekend comes in the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens game. Originally, the total was 42, but that number has since shot down with the number of injuries that could affect this game. Any time you have a starting QB out, the under is going to get bet hard, for obvious reasons. It now has swung to an outrageous 35, which is a ridiculous number to think of in the NFL. This season, however, it doesn't seem to be too crazy. Scoring in general is way down, and with Lamar Jackson continuing to be out for Baltimore, the offense has really struggled.
What this all means is that books have seen a massive influx of cash coming in on under. You can clearly see this on our "Line Movement" dashboard, which will show you the difference between the opening line and current number. BetQL's star ratings change immediately when the sportsbooks change theirs, so you can always count on us to have the most updated number.
See our model's best bets for this game below and be sure to check out all line movement data for this week's slate of games!
Sharp Money: Colts vs. Giants Total
This week, the sharps seem to be going with the total in the Colts vs. Giants game in New York. A whopping 96% of the money is on the under, but just 52% of the total tickets, a difference of 44% (the "Pro Betting Advantage"). Meanwhile, the over has attracted 48% of the total tickets but just 4% of the money. This isn't shocking at all when you look at the two teams playing in this game. The Colts looked like a total disaster with Nick Foles under center last week, and if he starts again, may god have mercy on them when it comes to putting points up. The Giants also aren't a great offense, but what is most concerning is how poorly QB Daniel Jones plays at home compared to on the road.
Therefore, sharp bettors are hammering the under. This data is available for every game of the slate for BetQL subscribers, so they always know which bet the high-rollers are backing. Compare this with our best bets for this game below.
Public Bet: 49ers vs. Raiders Spread
The public is seemingly going with the favorites in the 49ers vs. Raiders game, which is right on par with a public bet. San Francisco has attracted 80% of the total tickets in this game, with the Raiders getting just 20% of the total tickets wagered. What you have to learn is that the public is almost always on the favorite no matter what. It's rare when we get a heavy public underdog. Perhaps that is the right side here with the Raiders benching Derek Carr for the remainder of the season. They are benching him solely because they intend to trade or release him this offseason, and don't want him to get injured. It will save them $30 million.
Betting against the public can be a smart strategy, though, when it creates value on the opposite side. It doesn't always pan out, so you always have to be mindful of how you're factoring in this data, but BetQL will help you make these decisions with our model projections and analysis. Find out if our model is aligned with the public:
Take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of our best NFL bets, plus what the model is projecting for college football! Start your free trial today!