NFL Week 12 Monday Night Football Prop Picks: Ravens at Chargers

Monday Night Football in Week 12 features an intriguing clash between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. With both teams showcasing offensive playmakers, the matchup sets up perfectly for prop betting. I’ve identified four standout player props, including a strong game script for Justin Herbert and Joshua Palmer, a revenge narrative for J.K. Dobbins, and Derrick Henry’s explosive rushing ability. Let’s dive into why these picks offer value.

My Season Record: 68-39 (63.6%, +18.96 Units)

Chargers QB Justin Herbert Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM)

Herbert has gone over this number in four of his last five starts, with 349, 279, 282, 164 and 297 in that span. This is the best matchup possible for him to produce passing yards; Baltimore has allowed an NFL-high 304.45 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and their secondary has gotten shredded all year. Eight of the 11 starting quarterbacks that have faced the Ravens this season have gone over this total and I expect Herbert to thrive in this matchup. Per PFF, Herbert ranks 2nd in the NFL in deep completions and the Ravens rank 30th in deep completions allowed. I expect the Chargers to exploit Baltimore’s biggest weakness, which is clearly their pass defense.

Chargers WR Joshua Palmer Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)

Ladd McConkey is questionable and if he sits, Palmer becomes an even better play, but I still like him if McConkey suits up. Palmer has gone over this mark in six of his last seven games and has seen four-plus targets in five games in that span, including last week against the Bengals. Averaging 18.3 yards per catch, he’s ripped off several long catches (24, 24, 26, 28, 36, 45 in different games in that set of games) and this couldn’t be a better matchup for LA’s passing attack, as I explained above. Per Dataroma on X, Palmer has seven receptions on 20-plus air yard targets (9th-best among all NFL WR) and a 77.8% catch rate on those targets (minimum of five targets), which ranks 2n in the NFL. He also has a 14.6-yard aDOT, which ranks 11th-highest. I’m going to take a stand and predict Palmer to have a big game.

Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)

This will be a revenge game for Dobbins and teammate Gus Edwards, who both signed with the Chargers after playing for the Ravens. Whenever a running back in particular faces his old team, I tend to be interested in backing them since he will be running extra hard to make a statement. Although the Chargers’ passing attack should thrive, don’t ignore Dobbins. He’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry, has gone over this number in five of his last six starts overall and has put up 85, 96, 131 and 135 rushing yards in separate contests, which shows his upside. This number is simply too low for how efficiently he’s been running.

Ravens RB Derrick Henry Over 16.5 Yards Longest Rush (-113, FanDuel)

Henry has gone over this mark in nine of his last 10 starts with 29, 29, 87, 51, 27, 81, 39, 20, 11 and 31-yard longest runs in those starts. Containing Henry is a very tough ask and while the Chargers have been the best team in the league in terms of keeping running backs out of the end zone, they’ve allowed 4.45 yards per carry to the position (14th-most in the NFL). Henry not only entered Week 12 with the most rushing yards in the NFL (1,185), but also the most rushing yards over expected (411) despite seeing eight or more defenders in the box 32.99% of the time (2nd-most in NFL). In other words, it’s just another reminder that the dude is a freak.

BetMGM Insights: Tickets & Handle Data

The BetMGM NFL highlights for the Ravens-Chargers game spotlight several heavily bet player props, with significant action on both quarterbacks. Justin Herbert's passing yards prop is among the most popular, with bettors backing him to exceed 255.5 yards at -140. Similarly, Lamar Jackson's rushing yards prop has garnered strong support, with 99% of the money on the over 42.5 yards at -120. On the receiving side, Will Dissly's under 41.5 yards (+100) and Isaiah Likely's over 2.5 receptions (+105) are also drawing interest. Additionally, Herbert's under 0.5 interceptions at +110 is a noteworthy bet, highlighting confidence in his ability to protect the football.

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