NFL Public Betting Recap - Week 3: Sportsbooks Dominate in Carolina, Vikings Shine and Chiefs Crush the Public

Week 3 of the NFL season brought a mix of excitement and disappointment for bettors, with sportsbooks capitalizing on key matchups. The Las Vegas Raiders faced off against the struggling Carolina Panthers, and while many expected a straightforward win for the Raiders, a surprising performance from Andy Dalton turned the tide. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens managed to secure a much-needed victory over the Dallas Cowboys, rewarding public bettors. However, the sportsbooks struck back in Minnesota, where the Vikings dominated the Texans. As always, the Kansas City Chiefs remained a fan favorite, delivering a win against the Falcons while still leaving sportsbooks with a slight edge. Let’s dive into the public betting trends and outcomes from Week 3.

Sportsbooks Win Big on the Carolina Panthers

In what was perhaps the most obvious play of the week for sharp bettors, everyone and their brother was betting on the Las Vegas Raiders against the hapless Carolina Panthers, who had looked just abysmal the first two weeks of the season. Meanwhile, the Raiders had just gone to Baltimore and outright beat a Ravens team that gets a lot of public respect in the market. Therefore, we knew where the majority of bets and money would be here. Las Vegas closed as a -6 favorite, with a total of 40.

The public never saw the Red Rifle coming, and Andy Dalton proved that Bryce Young was indeed a huge liability for this offense. He came in and ripped the Vegas secondary for over 300 yards in the air and three touchdowns in a 36-22 romp on the road. A high 71 percent of the bets and 72 percent of the money was on Raiders spread, so the books cleaned up. On the moneyline, 58 percent of the bets and 70 percent of money was also on Raiders. The public won on the total, with 53 percent of bets and 51 percent of money on the over, but it was overall a fantastic result for the book.

Public Claims Giant Victory on the Ravens

Baltimore did everything they could at the end of the game to give the sportsbooks a win, but in the end, they still managed to win the game 28-25 against the Dallas Cowboys. Coming into the game, the Ravens were 0-2, and no one thought it was possible for them to be 0-3 to start their season. So, everyone was hitting the button on Baltimore, especially with Dallas getting embarrassed last week against New Orleans. The perception in the market was that the Ravens could not be 0-3, and the Cowboys were awful. Baltimore closed as a -1 favorite, with the total at 47.5.

For a change, the public ended up being correct in this assumption. A high 71 percent of bets and 72 percent of money was on the Ravens spread, while 65 percent of tickets and 80 percent of money was on Baltimore moneyline. The public wiped the floor here with this win, but the books at least got the total. Notably, 54 percent of bets and 68 percent of money was on the under, which looked good until the Ravens collapsed in the 4th quarter again and allowed the Cowboys back in the game.

The Books Strike Back in Minnesota

Another very lopsided game in terms of public betting was up in Minnesota, where the surprising 2-0 Vikings were at home against the public darling Houston Texans. The perception coming into the season was that Houston would compete for a championship with CJ Stroud, while the Vikings had 1st round bust Sam Darnold at QB and a bad defense. As it turns out, Minnesota is actually a good football team, and Darnold is this year’s Geno Smith. There is just something about failed Jets signal-callers, I guess. I wonder where Zach Wilson will succeed? Houston closed as a -1.5 favorite, with a total of 46.

It didn’t take long for the Vikings to assert their dominance. They went up 14-0 quickly and never looked back, crushing the Texans 34-7. A high 68% of the bets and 66 percent of the cash was on the Texans spread, but the public did win by taking a chance on Vikings moneyline with 57 percent of bets and 56 percent of money. The books won on the total, with 67 percent of bets and 75 percent of money on the over, and the Texans could not pull their weight despite the Vikings putting up 34 themselves.

The Super-Public Chiefs Win Again on Primetime

There is no team in the NFL quite as public as the Kansas City Chiefs, with Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, and of course, the Taylor Swift factor. You can pretty much book it every week that the sportsbooks will need whoever they are facing, and this week, it was the Atlanta Falcons. Even though they were coming off an impressive win against the Philadelphia Eagles, and normally would get more public love, the Chiefs are just too much of a square monster for anyone to overcome. Kansas City closed as a -3 favorite, with the total sitting at 46.5.

75 percent of bets and 66 percent of money was on the Chiefs spread, while 72 percent of bets and 82 percent of money was on their moneyline. The Chiefs ended up winning 22-17, covering both the spread and moneyline for squares. Also know that 55 percent of bets and 47 percent of money was on the over, so the books beat the general public there. Still, this was a bad result for the books, and sharps took a loss here.

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