BetQL Staff NFL Picks For Commanders-Bears TNF
Find out which NFL bets we're targeting for Thursday Night Football
Week 6 NFL Best Bets
Dan Karpuc: Darnell Mooney Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
I’ve had a profitable season identifying NFL player props, and last week Dallas Goedert easily crushed his 44.5-yard receiving prop against Arizona. I’m not touching either side or the total in this game. Instead, I’m tackling (haha, get it?) the player prop market once again and Darnell Mooney is sticking out as a fantastic option on Thursday night against the Commanders, who have allowed an average of 190.0 yards to opposing wide receivers, fourth-worst in the NFL.
Mooney has dominated the snaps at the wide receiver position this season for the Bears and was out there for 94% of his team’s plays in Week 5, which tied his season high. While that hasn’t translated to success (he’s only caught 10 of 21 targets for 173 yards with no touchdowns in five games), he’s accounted for 40.6% of his team’s Air Yards with 350 (no other Bears WR has more than 151) and 24.7% of his team’s targets.
This is a good spot for Justin Fields and Chicago to have some success in the passing game and Mooney is his clear top option downfield. In his last two games, Mooney has caught four passes for 94 yards (including a long of 56) and then two passes for 52 (with a long of 39), so there’s going to be an opportunity for him to break out here, especially if the Bears can establish the run and get the play-action passing game working. I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that he not only crushes this receiving yards prop, but crosses the century mark in this matchup.
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Brad Pinkerton: Offensive Comedy and/or Defensive Thriller
If you're looking for high-scoring, non-stop action, you're better off tuning into the ALDS. But if you're into laughing at a comedy of errors, Commanders-Bears is for you. And FanDuel and DraftKings are running some SGP promotions to make TNF at least a little interesting. Here are a few options I'll be looking at to assemble the No Sweat SGP on FanDuel (get your stake back if it loses) and the Stepped-Up SGP at DraftKings (profit boosts for each leg over two); adjust, mix and match to your liking and note that each option may not be available on both books:
Wentz Over 0.5 INTs (-130): Wentz has six INTs behind "leaders" Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford, and the Bears are one of seven teams with more INTs (five) than TD passes allowed (four).
Bears Defense 2+ sacks (-330): Wentz has been sacked 20 times, again only behind "leaders" Ryan and Stafford.
Fumble lost (-225): I mean, come on. It's gonna happen.
Under 42 total points (-200): The main line of O/U 38 (and dropping) is a bit low, even for these teams (combined 4-6 O/U), so I'll pay a little more to make the under more comfortable in any given parlay.
Bears D/ST Anytime TD (+900 FD, +800 DK): This can be a stand-alone play or part of a go-big SGP, but I think there's a very good chance that we see the Bears D/ST take advantage of a Washington mistake and help make up for the lack of offense.
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Lucy Burdge: Bears EVEN vs. Commanders
I think Justin Fields and the Bears can take down Carson Wentz and the Commanders on Thursday Night Football. The Bears (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) are coming off of a cover against the Vikings, while the Commanders (1-4 SU & ATS) haven’t covered in their last four games, so I like the Bears on the moneyline or even -1 if you want to risk the push. Especially because the Commanders have also lost their last four games outright, while the Bears are at least holding their own against quality opponents.
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MORE: SPORTSBOOKS’ BEST PROMOS FOR NFL WEEK 6
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