Karpuc’s Corner: Week 2 NFL Picks

After going 6-3 (+3.73 Units) on my published Week 1 NFL picks here at BetQL (which included a couple bad beats), I'm ready to get back in on the action for Week 2. Below, you'll see my lock of the week, upset pick of the week and three player props I love!

Lock Of The Week: Browns -6.5 vs. Jets (-110)

Over the last three seasons, the Jets have gone 0-7 ATS in September and I think that streak will continue this week. BetQL is giving the Browns a 75.54% chance to win this game outright and Cleveland is coming off a gritty 26-24 victory over the Panthers in Carolina last week. 

Meanwhile, the Jets couldn’t do much of anything in a 24-9 loss to the Ravens at home. 

The Jets are simply awful (again... sorry to all their fans out there). Despite running 79 plays in Week 1, they couldn’t record double-digit points and made Joe Flacco pass the ball an absurd 59 times. That wasn't ideal. New York went 2-for-14 on third down, lost 81 yards on six penalties and most likely will run into a similar problem all season long due to a general lack of talent. 

After they went nuts last week against Carolina, I expect the Browns to ground and pound the Jets in this contest, using Nick Chubb (22 carries, 141 rushing yards) and Kareem Hunt (11 carries, 46 yards, TD, 4 carries, 24 yards, TD) heavily once again. Since this Browns defense allowed only 261 total yards against Carolina, it’s very difficult to imagine New York’s offense doing much against Myles Garrett and company. Give me the Browns to win big in this spot.

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Upset Pick: Steelers +110 ML vs. Patriots

New England suffered an awful 20-7 loss in Miami on Sunday and now have to deal with an ailing Mac Jones. The quarterback is dealing with a back issue and missed practice on Thursday with a non-COVID illness. If he can’t go on Sunday, the Patriots will turn to Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe at the position, but if he does, he won’t be at 100%. Despite their 23-20 win over the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals last week, the Steelers are home underdogs in this matchup, which makes no sense to me.

Even with T.J. Watt now on the IR, this Steelers defense is solid and should not have much trouble dealing with the vanilla Patriots offense. I always respect New England’s defense, but I think this Pittsburgh offense has enough weapons to do some damage. If they score a couple touchdowns, that may be all they need.

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Deebo Samuel To Score A TD vs. Seahawks (-120)

It wouldn’t be Week 1 without a devastating 49ers RB injury, right? Elijah Mitchell went down last week which means that Jeff Wilson Jr., Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price are the three traditional running backs for Kyle Shanahan. Since George Kittle is also likely out once again in Week 2, I think that Samuel is not only going to be the main option that Shanahan turns to as a running back, but also as a receiver.

I like the over on his rushing, receiving and rushing + receiving yardage props, but I’m most comfortable betting on him to score a touchdown since he will be trusted in the endzone no matter what the play call is. In last week’s monsoon in Chicago, he only caught two of eight passes for 14 yards, but added 52 rushing yards and a touchdown on eight carries. I expect him to be heavily utilized this week in what should be a ceiling performance against a Seattle defense that will now be without ball-hawking safety Jamal Adams for the rest of the year due to injury.

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Saquon Barkley Over 107.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards vs. Panthers (-115)

Welcome back, healthy Saquon. And, most importantly, welcome back healthy Saquon under the guidance of a legitimate and knowledgeable coaching staff. In last week’s victory over the Titans in Tennessee, Barkley showed off the explosiveness he broke into the league with and took 18 carries for 164 yards and a touchdown. Not only that, but he caught six of seven passes thrown to him for an additional 30 yards. It just so happens that the Panthers just allowed 217 rushing yards to the Browns, as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 187 yards on 33 carries and five catches for 26 yards. As one of the few three-down, bell-cow backs in the league, Barkley has sky-high potential this week and I don’t view his output against the Titans as a fluke by any means.

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Davante Adams Over 7.5 Receptions vs. Cardinals (-105)

It didn’t take very long for Adams to prove his connection with Derek Carr. He caught 10 of 17 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown in his team’s Week 1 loss to the Chargers, but is in another great spot this week against a Cardinals team that just allowed Patrick Mahomes to go 30-for-39 for 360 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions on Sunday. Not only that, but this is a homecoming of sorts for Adams, who signed with the Raiders partly to be closer to family. He reportedly spent half a million dollars on suites for his friends and family, including his grandparents who will watch him play in person for the first time. So, the numbers and the narrative points to him having another huge game this week.

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