Week 1 is almost upon us, which is great news for BetQL subscribers! The model was red-hot last year, especially towards the middle and end of the 2021 season and in the playoffs, it was lights-out. Now is a great time to get in on the fun and join us for another winning season of NFL football. Today, we're taking a look at the Week 1 matchup between the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans. The Titans are solid home favorites, and the total is sitting in the mid-40s.
If you read my work from last season, I really faded the Titans in most of their games because I simply didn't believe the team was nearly as good as their record implied. They have some major regression coming their way in my opinion, with the whole Ryan Tannehill meltdown in the postseason last year and his just stupid comments about rookie QB Malik Willis drawing serious criticism. All of that causes a team and organization to become distracted by a plethora of issues, and that can cause their downfall.
Derrick Henry is the one guy on the team that they can rely on, and even he was hurt last season and didn't play for quite a while. Tannehill's best receiver, A.J. Brown, was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles so the offense will rely on Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burks. I don't know about you, but that doesn't sound super appealing to me, with Woods coming off a torn ACL and Burks' first-year status. Tennessee has been a far worse team without Brown over the past few seasons, scoring almost a full touchdown more per game on average with him on the field than off of it. Nothing about them is appealing, and I don't see them as a serious threat. However, their division is so bad, they still will finish second in all likelihood.
The Giants have done nothing but get better since the end of last season. Joe Judge is gone, which is a massive upgrade immediately, as is Jason Garrett. Those guys were horrible at their job and it's a classic case of addition by subtraction. Judge was an absolute disaster as head coach, and was fired after some ridiculous comments to the media and his career 10-23 record.
As the offensive coordinator of the Giants last year, Garrett's offense averaged 18 points per game, one of the worst marks in the NFL. Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard will all be back and healthy for the 2022 campaign, which will help new head coach Brian Daboll figure out how he wants to run his offense. The offensive line should be better with Evan Neal and Andrew Thomas on the outside, perhaps the best front they have had in a decade. Fifth overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux will bring pressure on the defense, having had nine sacks in 11 games at Oregon last season, and improving a Giants pass-rush that was third-worst last season. This is an easy pick for me.