Longer Watson Suspension Creates Surprising Value For Browns Bettors

The suspension for Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has now been extended from six games to 11 games for the dozens of sexual misconduct allegations against him, it was announced on Thursday. Watson is eligible to return for the Browns in Week 13 against the Texans, of all teams. In the meantime, the Browns are expected to start Jacoby Brissett, who threw for 1,283 yards with five TDs and four INTs in 11 games (five starts) with Miami last season.

As a result, the line on the Browns' win total has dropped from 9.5 to 8.5 at most books, but this might create value for Browns bettors. Brissett is certainly a downgrade, but even without Watson for 11 games, BetQL is still projecting the Browns to win 9.6 games and hit the over on this lowered win total by more than a full game.

Prior to the extended suspension, the Model projected the Browns to win 10.1 games, barely going over the 9.5 total at around -110. However, now you can get the over 8.5 at FanDuel at +135, while while the under is at -160.

It's certainly possible that Brissett could have a solid tenure as the starting quarterback to keep the over on this wins total in play, especially with the Panthers, Jets, Steelers and Falcons lined up as the first four opponents for Cleveland. I wouldn't completely rule out nine wins for the Browns, especially because Watson is very much expected to return to finish out the season strong.