Can Caleb Williams Lead Chicago Over 8.5 Wins?

Bears' Roster Improvements

We're a week away from the Chicago Bears making their HBO Hard Knocks debut. As a Chicago native and Bears fan, I'm extremely excited because there is so much for this organization to look forward to this season.

The Bears drafted quarterback Caleb Williams No. 1 overall and brought in a ton of weapons around him. Not only did they draft wide receiver Rome Odunze at No. 9, but they also added WR Keenan Allen to round out the receiving corps next to DJ Moore. Former Eagles' running back D'Andre Swift also signed with Chicago in the offseason, making this a well-rounded offense.

The defense finished the 2023-24 season as one of the best in the league, allowing the third-lowest EPA in the NFL over its final eight games. That success came after Chicago traded for edge rusher Montez Sweat, who returns this season and is expected to lead the defense to continued success.

BetMGM Insights

While the Bears' ceiling is the highest it's been in a very long time, betting insights from BetMGM suggest fans might want to temper expectations a little. Chicago's win total is sitting at 8.5 and is heavily juiced to the over at -165 on BetMGM.

According to the sportsbook, more tickets have come in on the Bears under than any other team in the league. Chicago is also the most-bet team to miss the playoffs in terms of both ticket and handle percentage.

Reasons For Under 8.5 Wins

There is certainly a lot to look forward to in Chicago, both this season and in the coming years. However, I don't completely disagree with the notion that asking this team to win nine games is too tall of a task. Here are a few reasons why:

• Rookie Wall: If the Bears win fewer than nine games, it will likely be because Caleb Williams isn't as NFL-ready as many experts think. He's an exceptional talent, but the transition from college to the NFL can be challenging, and there are already reports that the offense is somewhat behind schedule in training camp. He'll have a ton of help with so many talented position players around him, but any level of inconsistency from him or the offensive line could lead to an unexpected loss or two.
• Strength of Schedule: The Bears have a relatively easy start to the 2024 season. Outside of road games against the Texans and Colts in Weeks 2 and 3, Chicago should have the upper hand against most opponents it'll face in the first half of the year. That said, they play in the NFC North, which is one of the toughest divisions in the league, and the back half of the season is packed with division matchups. The Lions and Packers are going to be extremely tough to beat, especially on the road. The Vikings won't be an easy win either, especially once they find a steady situation at QB. Chicago will have to finish in the top two in the division if it wants to make the playoffs. I don't see it winning the NFC North, which means sneaking in as a Wildcard team is the more likely option. However, I think the Lions and Packers are both significantly better and I'd take either team to make the playoffs over the Bears.
• Injury Bug: Injuries are an inevitable part of the NFL, but a rash of key injuries on either side of the ball could derail the Bears' season. If Williams goes down, the season will go sideways quickly with Tyson Bagent as the backup QB. The same can be said for key injuries to top defensive players like Montez Sweat.

Overall, the Bears will need a lot to go their way if they want to get over 8.5 wins. Their rookie quarterback, new offensive coordinator, and mediocre offensive line will all have to find consistent continuity early in the season. If they can do that before their first division game against Green Bay on November 15, Chicago will be set up for success. But any growing pains—which are expected with a rookie QB—will likely lead to fewer than nine wins, thus hitting the under on their win total and missing the playoffs.