Caleb Williams Leads NFL in Bad Throws Through Three Games – Bears vs. Rams Betting Outlook

The start of Caleb Williams’ NFL career could be going a lot better than it has been so far, and while some of that can be attributed to other serious issues with the team, he also has struggled in the early going. The former USC superstar was selected No. 1 overall by the Bears this past summer in the 2024 NFL Draft, and you could hardly blame the Bears for picking him, as he was considered by many as a “generational” prospect. I don’t think anyone should be given that moniker, to be fair, but the media does like to create hype and sensationalism.

Through three games, Williams has thrown for 630 yards and two touchdowns but has also thrown four interceptions. Perhaps one of the most worrisome things we have seen from him to this point is his wild inaccuracy at times as a passer. According to Pro Football Reference, which tracks a variety of advanced passing stats for QBs, Williams has an NFL-worst 28 “bad throws” so far this season. When they say bad throws, they mean throws that are considered to be off-target.

Obviously, it has only been three games and he is a rookie, so you would expect some growing pains coming into the league. However, it is never good to be mentioned anywhere near Bryce Young, the former No. 1 pick in 2023 who was just benched after the first two games this season. Young actually leads the league in bad throw percentage at 28 percent, but Williams is right behind him at 25 percent.

Now, there are plenty of reasons that Williams has struggled outside of his own accuracy issues. Also according to PFR, Williams has had just 2.2 seconds in the pocket on average, which is tied for the third-worst in football so far. For comparison, many are saying Patrick Mahomes has not been playing his best football this season, despite their 3-0 record. Maybe it is because Mahomes has the lowest pocket time of any QB at just 2.0 seconds.

The Bears also cannot run the football at all with this offensive line and a struggling D’Andre Swift. In fact, Swift has 37 carries this season for just 68 yards rushing, which is an average of 1.8 yards per carry. That is horrendous, and with no semblance of a rushing attack, defenses can just focus on Williams and the passing game.

I am not trying to completely defend Williams here, as he also has not been particularly great with his own accuracy, but his teammates and coaches also have been failing to do their part for this offense. Having him throw 52 times in his third game is just unheard of. Jayden Daniels, who went just after Williams in the draft to the Commanders, has thrown the ball a whopping 42 times fewer than Williams through three games. That is almost two entire football games for some passers.

His next challenge will be the Los Angeles Rams this weekend, a defense that has allowed a total of 94 points in three games, one of the worst marks in the NFL. The Bears are -2.5 favorites at home, despite all of their struggles and public opinion, while the Rams just came off of a stunning comeback victory against the San Francisco 49ers. I highly doubt anyone will be on the Bears as a favorite here, which is why I will likely be betting them to win on Sunday.

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