Broncos vs. Chargers Public & Sharp Betting Report
Line movement, sharp bets and heavy public favorite for MNF
Matthew Horner - Oct 17, 2022, 3:38pm EDTNFL Week 6 concludes with yet another game that the Denver Broncos are a part of in prime time. At this point, the NFL must love making our eyes bleed from the brand of terrible football that they keep churning out during these island games, but people will watch no matter what. It's the NFL after all. Either way, we can make money on this game as we have every week this season here at BetQL.
Not only do we have our model's best bets and expert articles, but we also have live data tracking what the public is betting, where the sharps are betting, and how the lines are moving. When you subscribe to BetQL, you'll gain access to all of that real-time data, as well as the best bets and key trends for every game.
Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview of some of BetQL's most helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NFL Week 6. Start your free trial today!
NFL Week 6 concludes with yet another game that the Denver Broncos are a part of in prime time. At this point, the NFL must love making our eyes bleed from the brand of terrible football that they keep churning out during these island games, but people will watch no matter what. It's the NFL after all. Either way, we can make money on this game as we have every week this season here at BetQL.
Not only do we have our model's best bets and expert articles, but we also have live data tracking what the public is betting, where the sharps are betting, and how the lines are moving. When you subscribe to BetQL, you'll gain access to all of that real-time data, as well as the best bets and key trends for every game.
Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview of some of BetQL's most helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NFL Week 6. Start your free trial today!
Line Movement: Total
The biggest line movement for this game comes from the total of the game. Originally, the total was set at 47.5, but that went away very quickly. The line has moved a ton, and now the total for the game is sitting at 45.5 for this prime-time game as of 3:00pm EST. This was expected and shouldn't be a shock to anyone. Prime time games have been a gold mine for unders this season, and for the rest of the games really. Offense is way down this season, and betting unders has been the play of the season so far. Plus, how can you bet an over with this Denver offense playing a football game? Impossible.
What this all means is that books have seen a massive influx of cash coming in on the under. You can clearly see this on our "Line Movement" dashboard, which will show you the difference between the opening line and current number. BetQL's star ratings change immediately when the sportsbooks change theirs, so you can always count on us to have the most updated number.
See our model's best bets for this game below and be sure to check out all line movement data for this week's slate of games!
Sharp Money: Broncos ML
In this game, the sharp action is actually coming in on the Broncos ML to take down the chargers on the road. To be fair to Denver, they have kept almost every game they have been a part of in 2022 to a very close score, and they could have won a few games they managed to lose. The spread is just 4 at some places, and dropping, so big money is coming in on Denver to sneak out a win. Plus, the value here at +180 may be too good to pass up with a defense like Denver.
Know that 37% of the money is on the Denver ML, but just 27% of the total tickets, a difference of 10% (the "Pro Betting Percentage"). Meanwhile, Los Angeles has 73% of the total tickets but just 63% of the money.
Therefore, sharp bettors are hammering the Broncos to get the win on the road. This data is available for every game of the slate for BetQL subscribers, so they always know which bet the high-rollers are backing. Compare this with our best bets for this game below.
Public Bet: Chargers -4
The sharp money may be on the Broncos ML, but the majority of people are happy to fade coach Hackett and Russell Wilson. Denver has been just atrocious this season, and every time we have seen them play, it's been awful to watch. Therefore, why would people rush to the betting window to place real money on them? At the time of this writing, 67% of the total bets against the spread in this game are on the Chargers -4. Los Angeles put up some serious points against Cleveland last week, and a ridiculous amount of rushing yards. That probably won't be the case here, but they still have looked like the better team.
Betting against the public can be a smart strategy, though, when it creates value on the opposite side. It doesn't always pan out, so you always have to be mindful of how you're factoring in this data, but BetQL will help you make these decisions with our model projections and analysis. Find out if our model is aligned with the public: