Broncos at Chargers: MNF Player Prop Values

Week 6 concludes with a matchup between the Broncos and Chargers on Monday Night Football and BetQL is your one-stop source for best bets, live public and sharp betting data, written analysis, exclusive sportsbook offers and all of the game-by-game analytics and data you can dream of. As you’ll see below, our model also identifies the best player prop values for each game after simulating every contest 10,000 times!

Keep scrolling to see two of my favorite player prop values that you can bet right now, but before you do, make sure you redeem our exclusive BetMGM offer below. If you sign up for a new BetMGM account right now, you can bet completely risk-free up to $1,000 on your first bet!

Russell Wilson UNDER 229.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: 210 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

“Let Russ cook” has devolved from an overwhelmingly positive message of encouragement for Russell Wilson to a complete mockery of him in a very short period of time. After signing a five-year, $245 million contract extension with the Broncos before the season kicked off, Wilson has gone 101-for-170 (59.4%) passing for 1,254 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions through four games. Despite the fact that he has averaged 250.8 passing yards per game, BetQL is projecting him to finish with just 210 with a touchdown and an interception in this matchup against the Chargers. The Broncos will enter this game ranked 31st in scoring and dead-last in red zone scoring under Wilson’s leadership.

A recent report published on PFF detailed how Wilson has struggled badly against Cover 2 defenses. From 2018 to 2020, he ranked 22nd in Passing Yards Per Attempt (7.5), 27th in Completion Percentage (69.1%) and 33rd in Passer Rating (73.4). Against all other coverages in that same span, he ranked 7th, 6th and 2nd, respectively. As a result, opposing defenses have played with two-high safeties at a higher rate than he’s ever seen before this season, including: Cover 2 (14.2% in 2022 compared to 7.4% from 2018-2021), Cover 4 (12.8% up from 10.8%) and Cover 6 (12.2% up from 6.5%) packages. Since Chargers head coach Brandon Staley and his staff are analytics-driven decision-makers, expect to see a ton of zone coverages in this matchup. Wilson has also been under duress over the last three weeks in particular (11 sacks taken), so that should also make him very uncomfortable. 

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Austin Ekeler OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: 17 Rushes, 85 Yards

Denver has allowed 112.4 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks right in the middle of the pack, but has surrendered 144.0 per contest on the road (8th-worst). After some early-season woes, Ekeler and the Chargers have effectively run against their last two opponents and have won both matchups as a result. The diminutive running back had an incredible outing against the Browns last week in which he took 16 carries for 173 yards (10.8 yards per carry) with a touchdown and also caught four passes for an additional 26 yards and another score. So, his confidence is at an all-time high right now heading into this primetime showdown.

“It wasn’t anything crazy that we changed schematically,” Ekeler told the Los Angeles Times about the recent success in the run game. “I think it was just we were starting to attack the weakness of their defense, which we felt like was in their interior. … We were able to get those guys up front moving people. … If you go back and watch the run game and see some of these holes, see how our guys are working together, moving bodies, it’s pretty spectacular if you feel like watching football.” As a complete offensive unit, it’s clear that this is a cohesive bunch right now. After simulating this game 10,000 times, our model is projecting Ekeler to rush for 85 yards, well above his 59.5-yard total.

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