BetQL Model Picks for Ravens at Chargers: Best Bets for MNF Week 12

The BetQL model has spoken for the Monday Night Football showdown between the Ravens and Chargers, offering a data-driven approach to betting this highly anticipated game. With Baltimore favored by 2.5 points and the total set at 51, the model highlights value plays across the spread, total, and moneyline. While the Ravens are a slight road favorite, the model sees the Under 51 as the strongest wager of the night, backed by a track record of profitable NFL predictions. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the model’s top picks for this primetime matchup.

Spread: Ravens -2.5 (2-Star Value)

The BetQL model doesn’t see a lot of value here on the spread line of -2.5 for the Baltimore Ravens. It has the Ravens as a -4 favorite in this game, which granted, getting -2.5 still would make Baltimore the play here for the model. It just doesn’t think there is a ton of value based off of its simulations of this game and the average outcome that you will see.

It is quite rare that a game ends on two points being the difference, but it does happen at times, and it is certainly painful to experience when you have a -2.5. However, there is a bet on this game that the model sees some good value in, so I think we can pass on the spread model play in this one.

Total: Under 51 (4-Star Value)

The BetQL model has a 4-star wager on the Under 51 tonight on the total of the game, and you probably want to lock this in. The model has this total at 47.5 points projected, so on average, the game is going to end with a score that is 3.5-points below what the total is set at right now. While this isn’t a 5-star bet, which are the ones that present the most value, it is still a very strong play.

The model has been red-hot on bets just like this. The model has gone 472-336-26 (59% win) on 3-Star and higher NFL bets of $100 in the last 365 days, generating $1,502 of pure profit over the last year. Wait, as it gets even better for the model play for this game. It has also gone 319-210-71 (61% win) on all Baltimore Ravens bets of $100, generating a whopping $2,037 in profit all time.

Okay, so maybe you are saying “Well, what has it done for me lately?” about the model. It has that covered, too. The model has gone 30-8-0 (79% win) on 4-Star and higher NFL bets of $100 in the last 14 days, racking up a beautiful $1,497 in profit in two weeks. No matter how you look at it, long term or short term, the model is printing on bets like this.

Moneyline: Ravens -150 ML (3-Star)

The model has a smaller wager tonight on the Ravens just to win the game outright on the moneyline at -150 odds. It has fair odds for Baltimore to win the game at -206 right now, so we are getting some decent value at this price at most books. It isn’t some lock of the century or a best bet, but I generally would recommend a half-unit or quarter-unit on 3-star plays by the model.

I will say, it has done well on these over the last week. The model has gone 4-1-0 (80% win) on 3-Star and higher NFL moneyline bets of $100 in the last 7 days. Still, considering the juice here, I wouldn’t be going crazy with it. If there is one play tonight from the model to wager on, it is the Under 51 with a smaller bet here.

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