BetQL 5-Star Review: Model Nails Ravens-Giants Total

What an insane Week 6 in the National Football League! The NFL never fails to live up to expectations, unless you are watching a prime time game, and then maybe it does. However, it was a great Sunday for us, and to everyone who viewed the early and late afternoon slate of games. Bills vs. Chiefs lived up to the hype, even if the game went way under the total, and was still an awesome match that came down to the wire. Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes is the new Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, and every one should know that by this point. These two will be facing each other for many years to come.

The BetQL model brings you our best NFL bets every single week of the season, and we rate them on a scale of 1-5 stars, with five representing the best value. This week, one of our best bets was on the Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants total, and the model absolutely loved the under in the game. The total was set at 45.5, a number that the model believed was far too high considering all the unders that have been hitting this season. As usual, the model nailed it again.

One thing about NFL betting, or really any betting in general, is you have to get with the times. Historical data does matter, and we take that into consideration as well, but you have to know what is happening on a weekly basis in the league. Everyone and their brother who watches and bets NFL football in the year 2022 understands that unders have been hitting at an incredible rate. The total for NFL games has dropped significantly from the average total in 2021, which was about 48. This year? We are talking an average total of about 43. That type of drop-off in offensive efficiency cannot be ignored, so the model factors that into each and every total bet.

Not only that, but both of the teams involved in this game have been under teams on the year. Both the Ravens and Giants have an O/U record of 2-4, so a majority of their games have hit the under. Not only that, but we had this game set at 42.5 points, so that was a huge difference in the line from what the sportsbooks had up. That, and the BetQL model has gone 181-108-41 (63% win) on All New York Giants bets of $100, and 191-116-41 (63% win) on All Baltimore Ravens bets of $100 since its creation, so we felt pretty confident here.

The game ended up landing on 44, which was higher than our projection by 1.5 points but below the market number of 45.5. That is how our model works. We set a number on a game, and the difference between our number and the number at sportsbooks determines how much value we find in the bet. This was a full field goal differential, which is almost always going to trigger a best bet. Lamar Jackson started off the season with MVP consideration but has fallen off a cliff recently in production. He wasn't great against the Bengals last week, and nothing he did in this game was impressive, either. 17-32 passing for 210 yards, a TD, and a pick. Yawn.

You could also argue that if the Ravens would just stop choking away leads, this game easily goes way under this total, but they just love to give it up at every opportunity they can. We took that into account too and still couldn't get to an over on this one.

Chalk this bet up as another winner with our 5-star best bets. You can get in on the action before it's too late, just subscribe and start winning today!

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