Best Longshot Same-Game Parlay for Texans vs. Cowboys: Monday Night Football Week 11

Monday Night Football’s Week 11 matchup between the Texans and Cowboys presents an opportunity for bettors to cash in on a value-packed parlay at +525 odds. This three-leg bet combines Cowboys +7.5, Rico Dowdle to rush for 75+ yards, and Nico Collins to surpass 72.5 receiving yards. Let’s break down each leg and why it makes sense for tonight’s game.

Cowboys +7.5 & Rico Dowdle 75+ Rushing Yards & Nico Collins Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM, +525)

Leg 1: Cowboys +7.5

Simply put, I don’t know a single person that wants a piece of the Dallas Cowboys right now. Jerry’s dumpster fire has started to grow to epic proportions now that starting QB Dak Prescott is likely out for the season, although it wasn’t going well even when he was playing. The offense has nothing that even resembles a rushing attack, and I’m still puzzled as to why Zeke Elliott has a job in the NFL. The defense has been torched over and over as well, and head coach Mike McCarthy is sitting on a throne of flames.

For all of these reasons and more, I am taking the Cowboys to cover this large spread of +7.5 at home, where they have yet to win a single game in the year 2024. In fact, across the four major U.S. sport leagues, the Cowboys are the only team that has not won at home in this calendar year. As it sits, 75% of the tickets and 54% of the cash is on the Texans spread at BetMGM, and I would expect the late public cash that comes in to be on that side as well.

Not to mention the absurdly large amount of parlays that end with Texans ML tonight, I can pretty much guarantee you that every sportsbook is going to be rooting for America’s team tonight to at least cover.

Leg 2: Rico Dowdle 75+ Rushing Yards

I just mentioned that the Cowboys have had almost a non-existent rushing attack, which is very true, but I think they have a chance to have at least some semblance of one in this game. I’m not sure who is starting at QB for the Cowboys, but whether it is Cooper Rush or Trey Lance, Dallas would be stupid not to mainly run their offense through Dowdle in this game. They should have cut Zeke by now, but perhaps he has some incriminating evidence on Jerry, as that is the only explanation he has a job.

Even so, Dowdle has received 80% of the carries over the last two games, which is what should be happening. He’ll face a Texans defense that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry and the third-most explosive runs of 15+ yards. Over their last four games, nearly every opponent has rushed for close to 75+ against this Houston defense. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 71 yards, Breece Hall ran for 74, Jonathan Taylor went for 105, and Josh Jacobs ripped off 76.

I think with how Dallas is going to look to slow the game down on offense since they have Rush or Lance starting, that means they will be feeding Dowdle the ball a lot.

Leg 3: Nico Collins Over 72.5 Receiving Yards

No matter what situation the Texans find themselves in tonight, Collins is very likely going to get his. He’s the No. 1 target for QB C.J. Stroud, and this offense runs so much smoother when he is on the field and dominating the secondary. He hasn’t played since October 6 against the Buffalo Bills, where he was injured and had to be sidelined for over a month. That has noticeably bogged down the Texans offense.

Now, it seems as though he is back and fully healthy, and he is going to want to get back into the groove of things quickly. Before his injury, Collins had 567 yards on 32 catches, averaging 17.7 yards per catch. He caught three touchdowns as well, and had three 100 yard games out of the five he participated in. He even had 78 against the Bills before he had to leave with his injury.

Dallas has struggled immensely in the secondary, allowing 109 yards to A.J. Brown last weekend, 88 yards to Darnell Mooney the week before, and 71 to Deebo Samuel before that.

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