Bengals at Ravens Week 10 TNF Model Picks

Last weekend, the BetQL model went an incredible 10-1 on 5-star (max-value) plays in the NFL, with the only loss coming on Monday Night with the Chiefs not covering the -9 spread. Obviously, going 10-1 is extremely hard to do for any person or machine, but the model will give it a go again for NFL Week 10. The first game of the week is actually a good one, which is quite rare for Thursday Night Football. The Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) will travel to Baltimore and take on the Ravens (6-3) in a crucial game in the AFC North.

Spread: Ravens -6 (4-Star)

The BetQL model doesn’t have a 5-star play in this game, but that’s alright, as we still have a 4-star play here on the spread. While this isn’t the model’s most confident play, a 4-star bet is still one that is offering a decent amount of value and an edge.

The model has the Ravens favored by -9 in this game, so getting a line like -6 is going to trigger a good value wager.

The Bengals have been atrocious defensively this season, and the last time these two teams faced off earlier this year in Cincinnati, QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens put up 41 points on them in a thrilling close victory. Clearly, this will be quite the sweat. Bengals QB Joe Burrow has been playing at an MVP-like level this season despite their record. He’s thrown for 2,244 yards, 20 touchdowns to just four interceptions, and a 76.3 QBR. That QBR is ranked 2nd in the entire league, just behind his counterpart in this game, so you can see how well he is playing.

Jackson, who has the best QBR in the league at 77.0, should also have no problem ripping the Bengals at home. However, RB Derrick Henry could be the real hero here for them, as he has really transformed this offense into the type of juggernaut we saw from them in 2020.

Total: Over 53 (2-Star)

The total isn’t getting much love here from the BetQL model, as this is only a 2-Star wager. The model has the total at 54.5 as a fair line, so not very far off this total of 53. It leans over, but there isn’t much value here.

Moneyline: Ravens -270 (4-Star)

You could probably tell the model loves the Ravens in this game by taking them on the spread, and of course, that means it will also show value on the moneyline. The model thinks this price should be closer to -569, so getting a price of -270 is a lot of value. However, I am not going to sit here and tell you to bet into a -270 juicebox. If you want to take them in a ML parlay, you certainly can, although the books are going to be cheering against you I am sure.

Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!