Karpuc: This Is The Darnell Mooney Breakout Week
All the signs point to a breakout game for the Bears wideout
Dan Karpuc - Oct 12, 2022, 2:09pm EDT
DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH
In today’s NFL, it’s very difficult to imagine a team averaging 116.6 passing yards per game, but that’s exactly what Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears have managed through the first five weeks of the year en route to a 2-3 start.
For context, only six other teams average less than 200 passing yards per game and the next lowest output has been the New York Giants (154.2).
However, the Bears’ passing game could be in a sneaky good spot against the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football. In particular, I’m going to be targeting Chicago wideout Darnell Mooney.
BREAKOUT WEEK INCOMING
Mooney is sticking out as a fantastic option against Washington, which has allowed an average of 190.0 yards to opposing wide receivers (4th-worst in the NFL) so far. Mooney has dominated the snaps at the wide receiver position this season for the Bears and was out there for 94% of his team’s plays in Week 5, which tied his season high.
While that hasn’t translated to success (he’s only caught 10 of 21 targets for 173 yards with no touchdowns in five games), he’s accounted for 40.61% of his team’s Air Yards (350, no other Bears WR has more than 151) and 24.71% of his team’s targets.
Per Brad Spielberger of PFF, Mooney’s 173 receiving yards ranks 64th among wide receivers, but that's out of 679 total Bears passing yards. But, if you put his yardage share on a league-average passing offense, he'd have 310 receiving yards, which would be 22nd between Tee Higgins and Gabriel Davis.
In his last two games, Mooney has caught four passes for 94 yards (including a long of 56) and then two passes for 52 (with a long of 39), so there’s going to be an opportunity for him to break out here, especially if the Bears can establish the run and get the play-action passing game working.
Per Chris Emma of Audacy’s 670 The Score noted that Mooney knows his role is to make things happen when Fields throws him the ball. "I feel like if it's in my vicinity, whether it's two hands or one hand, I got to catch the ball. ... My job is to be a playmaker at all times,” he said after last week’s game.
OVER 43.5 & OVER 99.5
I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that he not only crushes this receiving yards prop, but crosses the century mark in this matchup. I already got that alternate line at +850. Overall, though, I'm viewing his 43.5-yard total as one of the top values for Thursday night's game.
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