Backing the 0-2 Jaguars: Betting Trends Favor Jacksonville as Road Underdogs vs. Bills

The 0-2 Jaguars head to Buffalo as they look for their first win of the season tonight against the 2-0 Bills. This is a must-win game for Jacksonville because it’s back on the road against the Texans next week who are coming off a terrible loss in Minnesota and will be ready to go. If the Jags don’t win tonight, they could be looking at a 0-4 start, which in that case, means they can all but kiss their season goodbye.

The Jaguars had the Dolphins on the ropes in Week 1 and were in position to win that game before running back Travis Etienne fumbled on the goal line late in the 3rd quarter. The Dolphins recovered and Tua Tagovailoa hit Tyreek Hill for an 80-yard touchdown on the very next play. The momentum shifted from there and Miami won 20-17.

That said, if Jacksonville had won that game, I think we’d be looking at tonight’s matchup a bit differently. The Jags are going to throw the kitchen sink at the Bills and there are a few areas they can exploit them. The first is over the middle with Bills linebackers Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard ruled out tonight. The Bills are also missing cornerback Taron Johnson, so injuries could allow Trevor Lawrence to find more success than he’s had through the first two weeks.

Lawrence completed just 46.7% of his passes in Week 1 and 57.1% in Week 2. Both Kyler Murray and Tagovailoa faced the Bills defense this year and both QBs had a completion rate of at least 67%. Those aren’t the most impressive numbers we’ve seen through the first two weeks of the season, but if Lawrence can connect with his receivers at a similar rate, the Jags will be able to keep this game close.

The desperation spot also tells us to back Jacksonville against the spread tonight. Six of the seven teams with a 0-2 record entering Week 3 not only won outright but also covered the ATS. So far this season, teams that are at least 6-point underdogs are 12-1 ATS through three weeks. I know that the Jags don’t quite fit into that category as 5.5-point dogs, but seeing as those same teams are also 8-5 SU, this is still a trend worth considering.

Teams that lose outright as home favorites and then are underdogs on the road the very next week are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU this season. Jacksonville fits this system seeing as they lost as home favorites to the Browns last weekend. The Eagles are the most recent team to follow that trend, losing to the Falcons as 5.5-point home favorites in Week 2 before beating the Saints as road underdogs in Week 3.

Lastly, fading the public has been extremely profitable thus far and, according to BetMGM, the Bills are receiving 67% of the tickets and 61% of the handle to cover -5.5 tonight. I’ll fade the public and back Jacksonville on the spread as the more desperate team. I’d also recommend sprinkling the moneyline at +200.

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