49ers vs. Chiefs Preview
Picks and predictions for 49ers vs. Chiefs in Week 7
49ers vs. Chiefs Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (3-3) on Oct. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Santa Clara.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Chiefs vs. 49ers Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.
Chiefs Preview
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI).
Mecole Hardman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 55% ROI).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.30 Units / 57% ROI).
Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI).
Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.10 Units / 51% ROI).
Chiefs Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 73% ROI).
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI).
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI).
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 12% ROI).
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 2-4 (-2.45 Units / -36.84% ROI).
Chiefs are 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 6.48% ROI.
Chiefs are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI.
Chiefs are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers
The Chiefs are 3-1 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .413.
The Chiefs are 8-5 (.615) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .281.
The Chiefs are 17-7 (.708) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .289.
The Chiefs are 2-3 (.400) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .226.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 7
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 52% since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Chiefs have thrown for 19 TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Chiefs have run 62% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 64% against the blitz since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 7
The Chiefs defense has one interception and 18 TD passes allowed this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.
The Chiefs defense has intercepted one of 284 attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45.8.
The Chiefs defense has allowed 7 TD passes in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.
The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 54% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
49ers Preview
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Completions Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 38% ROI).
Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 21% ROI).
Ray-Ray McCloud has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI).
Deebo Samuel has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 40% ROI).
Eli Mitchell has hit the Carries Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI).
49ers Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 64% ROI).
The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI).
The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI).
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 51% ROI).
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.60 Units / 36% ROI).
49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers have gone 3-3 (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).
49ers are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -20.52% ROI.
49ers are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI.
49ers are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI.
San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The 49ers are undefeated (4-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .535.
The 49ers are 6-2 (.750) vs top 10 pass offenses since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .389.
The 49ers are undefeated (7-0) vs bottom 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .531.
The 49ers are undefeated (9-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .542.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have run successful plays on 52.3% of pass attempts this season — tied for second-best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 51.4% of pass attempts this season — fourth-worst in NFL.
The 49ers have an average drive start position from the 24.7 yard line since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed an average drive start position from the 26.0 yard line since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.
The 49ers have gained at least 5 yards on 51.1% of first down plays this season — third-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed at least 5 yards on 48.8% of first down plays this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
Chiefs RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 8.2% of 466 carries since the 2021 season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 10+ yards on just 5.9% of carries to RBs since the 2021 season — best in NFL.
Chiefs RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 7.6% of 132 carries this season — third-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 10+ yards on just 3.7% of carries to RBs this season — best in NFL.
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 51.5% in the first half since the 2021 season — best in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 44.7% in the first half since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.
San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats for Week 7
The 49ers have targeted RBs 6% of the time (14 Pass Attempts/220 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The 49ers have run 14% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in close and late situations this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.
The 49ers have started 28 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — most in NFL.
The 49ers have targeted RBs 10% of the time (75 Pass Attempts/732 plays) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats for Week 7
The 49ers defense has allowed 5.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,982 yards / 334 touches) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The 49ers defense has allowed 330.3 yards from scrimmage per game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 408.6.
The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 37% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The 49ers defense has allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.