3 NFL Betting Trends for Week 9 From BetMGM

Week 9 NFL Betting Trends

With six teams on bye in Week 9, 13 NFL games are available to bet this week. The schedule starts with the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football and ends with the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. Here are three NFL betting trends to consider for Week 9:

Short Road Dogs

Short road dogs (+0.5 to +2.5) have been consistently profitable for over a decade. From 2011-21, they finished under .500 only twice (2013 and 2016) and produced a season ROI of at least +10% six times.

That hasn’t slowed down in 2022. 

While they aren’t covering at a 67% clip like last year, they’re still 10-6 (.625) through eight weeks, including 4-0 in Week 8.

As of Monday, there’s only one team in this spot – Seattle Seahawks (+2 at Arizona Cardinals) – but two more could close as short dogs if there’s line movement. 

The Las Vegas Raiders are 1-point road favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Los Angeles Rams are 3-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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Under Streaks

When the Jaguars and Denver Broncos met in London in Week 8, it was the 33rd game this season in which two teams met after going under the total in their previous game. And when the Broncos and Jaguars combined for only 38 points, it was the 20th time in those 33 games the under hit.

Since the start of the 2021 season, the under is 65-46 (.586) for an ROI of +11.9% in these spots. It’s a dramatic reversal of a trend that favored the over for nearly two decades. From 2003-20, the under was 507-556-13 (.477) for an ROI of -7.1%.

There are three Week 9 games within this trend: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, Raiders at Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills at New York Jets.

Sweet Spot for Moneyline Underdogs

I will continue referencing this trend until it has a bad week.

Despite a blown call on D.J. Moore’s unsportsmanlike conduct, missed PAT, and missed overtime field goal that led to the Carolina Panthers’ loss in Atlanta, it was another profitable week for short-to-moderate road or neutral-site moneyline underdogs.

Underdogs of +100 to +225 went 3-3 in Week 8, but thanks to a nice return from the Washington Commanders (+120), these dogs finished in the black again.

Through eight weeks, these teams are 20-23 for an ROI of +16.9%. And since the start of 2020, they are 104-99-2 for an ROI of 26.3%.

As of Monday, there are only two teams in this spot for Week 9, the same two teams mentioned in the first trend: Seahawks (+110 at Cardinals) and Rams (+135 at Buccaneers).

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.