3 NFL Betting Trends for Week 8 From BetMGM

Week 8 NFL Betting Trends

With only two teams on bye in Week 8 – the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers – 15 NFL games are available at the online sportsbook this week. The schedule starts with the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football and ends with the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. Where are some NFL betting trends to consider in Week 8? Let's take a look below.

Post-Blowout Underdogs
In last week’s trends, I mentioned a 59.2-percent cover rate (since 2018) for underdogs facing teams one week removed from a loss of at least 15 points. And the Commanders followed that trend with an outright win over the Packers.

Here’s a similarly successful trend this week for the blown-out teams instead: Underdogs that lost by at least 18 points – the exact margin in four Week 7 games – the previous week are 56-36 (.609) against the spread since 2020. 

Of those four 18-point losers last week – Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – and one 21-point loser – San Francisco 49ers – two are underdogs in Week 8, as of Monday.

• Lions (+3) vs. Dolphins
• Texans (+1.5) vs. Titans

Within that trend, home teams have been sensational; they’re 30-17 against the spread over the last three seasons. 

Indoor Overs

Seven Week 8 games will be played inside a climate-controlled, closed-roof stadium – not including SoFi Stadium. Two of those games have a total lower than 42, which has been a historically important line for overs:

• Titans at Saints: 40.5
• Commanders at Colts: 40

Since 2005, the over is 97-69-4 (.584) in closed-roof stadiums when the total is lower than 42. And while this trend has cooled in the last decade – 36-35 (.507) since 2012, compared to 67-44-3 (.604) from 2003-11 – overs are still 9-6 (.600) in this spot since 2019.

Sweet Spot for Moneyline Underdogs

This trend worth noting again after another profitable week:

Short-to-moderate road and neutral-site moneyline underdogs aren’t dominating in 2022 like they did in 2021 – 45-31-1 outright with an +39.1% ROI for underdogs of +100 to +225 – but they’re still winning enough to deliver healthy returns.

Those teams went 2-1 in Week 7; the New York Giants (+145) and Seattle Seahawks (+180) both won while the Indianapolis Colts (+120) lost.

Through seven weeks, road and neutral-site moneyline dogs are now 17-20 for an ROI of 18.5%.

As of Monday, there are five teams in this spot, including the Giants again. They’re +125 for a road game against the Seahawks as they look to reach 7-1 in these spots over the last two seasons.

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.