BetQL Simulations Pinpoint Best 2024 Passing Yards Leader Bet

The 2024 NFL season is upon us, and the race for the most passing yards is already heating up. As fans and analysts alike start to speculate which quarterback will lead the league, we're here to dive deep into the data and provide a comprehensive analysis. In this article, we'll explore the highest ticket percentage, highest handle percentage, biggest liability, and the current odds leader, using data from our friends at BetMGM. To give you an even clearer picture, we’ll also reveal simulation data after running every game 10,000 times through BetQL's advanced NFL model. Whether you’re a bettor, a fantasy football player, or just an avid NFL fan, this analysis will provide valuable insights into the top contenders for the 2024 passing yards crown.

Betting Data & Simulation Results: Most Passing Yards

As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, the competition for the most passing yards is already heating up. Here’s a summary of the key data points:

• Highest Ticket%: CJ Stroud of the Houston Texans leads with 14.3% of tickets. He opened and remains at +600 odds, with BetQL's simulation projecting him to pass for 4,296 yards. Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons for a QB ever last year, passing for 4,108 yards, which was eighth-most in the NFL. With the addition of star veteran receiver Stefon Diggs, bettors clearly believe he will improve on that number.
• Highest Handle%: Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals commands the highest handle percentage at 18.2%. His odds opened and remain at +800, with a simulation projection of 3,451 yards. Burrow has been an elite QB ever since he came into the league, but has struggled to stay healthy with multiple season-ending injuries. In the two seasons that he played healthy, he passed for 4,611 yards and 4,475 yards, in 2021 and 2022 respectively.
• Biggest Liability: Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears is the biggest liability, having opened at +8000 and moved to +3000. The simulation projects him to pass for 3,267 yards. Williams is the most highly-touted QB prospect since Trevor Lawrence and has been hailed as a "generational" type of player. He'll enter an offense that already has two pro-bowl receivers in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, plus rookie top-10 pick Rome Odunze.
• Odds Leader: Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is the odds leader, opening at +550 and currently at +500. BetQL's simulation projects him to lead the NFL with 4,835 yards. There isn't much to say here that hasn't already been said about Mahomes. He's the best QB in the NFL and puts up ridiculous numbers every year. Barring injury, there is a reason he is the odds leader here.

Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes (+500)

Previous Winners

Here's a list of the NFL players with the most passing yards in each of the last 10 years:

• 2023: Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) - 4,624 yards
• 2022: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) - 5,250 yards
• 2021: Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - 5,316 yards
• 2020: Deshaun Watson (Houston Texans) - 4,823 yards
• 2019: Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - 5,109 yards
• 2018: Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) - 5,129 yards
• 2017: Tom Brady (New England Patriots) - 4,577 yards
• 2016: Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) - 5,208 yards
• 2015: Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) - 4,870 yards
• 2014: Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) & Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) - 4,952 yards

This list reflects the top passing leaders in each respective NFL season over the past decade.