2024 NFL Hall of Fame Game Betting Preview: Bears vs. Texans

We are just days away from the football being back! The 2024 NFL preseason officially kicks off on Thursday with the much-anticipated Hall of Fame Game featuring a matchup between the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears.

After months without football, bettors are undoubtedly excited to wager on this event. However, handicapping this game is tricky because we have to remember that this is just an exhibition game and the outcome doesn't matter. We also won't know for certain how many snaps each team's starters will get. The Bears announced on Tuesday afternoon that they're not playing their starters, including rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, but the Texans have yet to make the same announcement.

With that in mind, my best advice when wagering on the Hall of Fame Game is to look at historical outcomes and trends.

Right now, the Bears are -1 favorites with the total sitting at 31.5. Both of those numbers moved a point, from -2 and 32.5, after Chicago told the media that Williams wouldn't be starting.

Here are a few key factors to consider to help you make informed bets on this highly anticipated showdown.

Historical Trends to Consider

There is a ton of hype surrounding both of these squads as we head into the 2024 season. C.J. Stroud is coming off a historical rookie campaign and is loaded with new talent around him. Williams was the No. 1 pick in this year's draft and is said to be a generational talent. Chicago also made quite a few moves in the offseason to ensure he has plenty of talent around him too, especially at receiver.

However, what previous Hall of Fame Games have taught us is that we likely won't see the Texans' first stringers for more than one series. They'll play enough to get 1-2 real game reps and then the backups will take over. Because the offensive talent isn't quite as sharp with the second and third units, taking the under is typically a solid bet.

The under has hit in seven of the last 11 games, dating back to 2010 (no game in 2020 & 2011). Over that span, the HOF Game has averaged 29.0 points per game, and in the seven games that the under hit, it did so by an average of 11 points.

We are, however, coming off back-to-back years of the over hitting with 37 points scored last year and 38 points scored in 2022.

In terms of the spread, it's hard to say exactly why the Bears are favored by one point. Maybe the books think they'll be the more motivated team, but regardless, I would argue that the wrong team is favored.

I mentioned that the starters likely won't play more than one series, and I doubt that Stroud plays at all, which means we'll be seeing plenty of action from both teams' backups. The Texans' backup QBs are far superior to Chicago's with Davis Mills, Case Keenum and Tim Boyle on the depth chart for Houston. Each of those players has at least 20 career starts with Keenum starting 66 NFL games throughout his career. The Bears trio of Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien and Austin Reed are the less experienced group by far.

Recent historical trends back up my argument with underdogs going 6-2-1 ATS and 5-4 SU since 2013. The Texans are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine preseason games overall.

If you want to bet on the HOF Game, I recommend doing so conservatively, but my favorite plays on Thursday are Texans ML and the under 31.5.