Cleveland Browns
11-6
Pittsburgh Steelers
10-7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Cleveland Browns vsPittsburgh Steelers Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a solid favorite with a 61% chance to beat the Cleveland Browns. James Conner is projected for 64 rushing yards and a 48% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 39% of simulations where Cleveland Browns wins, Baker Mayfield averages 2.23 TD passes vs 0.58 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.58 TDs to 0.97 interceptions. Nick Chubb averages 75 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing TDs when Cleveland Browns wins and 51 yards and 0.35 TDs in losses. The Pittsburgh Steelers has a 42% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 84% of the time.

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

Wild Card Weekend comes to a conclusion with a primetime game between two bitter rivals, as the Cleveland Browns play their first playoff game in 18 years against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ironically, their last playoff game also came against the Steelers, a 36-33 loss. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 EST on Sunday, January 10, at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are currently listed as 4.5-point home favorites with the over/under set at 46.5 points. Let’s take a closer look at both teams before offering our Steelers vs Browns prediction.

Pittsburgh Steelers Preview

Despite winning the AFC North and finishing 12-4, the Steelers undoubtedly fit into the category of “backing into the playoffs.” Pittsburgh lost four of five games after starting the season 11-0. To be fair, three of those four losses came against playoff teams. The Steelers were also sitting several key players in last week’s loss to the Browns. Perhaps more importantly, Pittsburgh’s incredible comeback win over the Colts in Week 16 is a sign that the Steelers are capable of flipping a switch and playing at a high level.

Nevertheless, there are lingering concerns about the Pittsburgh offense based on their play late in the season. The Steelers finished the season with the fewest rushing yards in the NFL despite playing with a lead for most of the season. The Pittsburgh offense has become heavily reliant on Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball 40 times a game and connecting on short passes. For what it’s worth, the Steelers have four players with over 500 receiving yards and three with over 800 receiving yards, so Roethlisberger has plenty of available targets. However, their offense became somewhat predictable late in the year with the Steelers averaging less than 20 points per game over their final six games.

Of course, there’s no denying that the Steelers have a defense that can win in the playoffs. The Steelers racked up 56 sacks in 16 games, so they can get after opposing quarterbacks, especially when they play with a lead. The Steelers also had five players with multiple interceptions, so they know how to create turnovers. However, the Pittsburgh defense has been vulnerable against the run during various parts of the season, which could be a concern in cold-weather playoff games when teams rely on the running game more than usual.

Cleveland Browns Preview

able to overcome a mini-COVID outbreak late in the season and an embarrassing Week 16 loss to the Jets to beat Pittsburgh in Week 17 and secure a playoff spot. Granted, the Steelers were resting several key players. But the Browns should be proud of their 11-5 record and feel good about their chances of making some noise in the playoffs.

After all, the Browns had one of the most potent rushing attacks in the NFL this season. As we know, the ability to run the ball is critical in the playoffs. With Nick Chubb rushing for over 1,000 yards in just 12 games and averaging 5.6 yards per carry, Cleveland checks that box. The Browns are also back to full strength at wide receiver after losing all of their key players at that position in Week 16. Of course, Baker Mayfield remains the ultimate wild card. He’s gone through some extreme ups and downs this season and is sometimes hampered by his offensive line. While the Cleveland rushing attack can carry the Browns a long way, Mayfield needs to have a good game to get the Browns over the hump.

Keep in mind that the Cleveland defense isn’t always the most reliable. With Oliver Vernon lost to injury in Week 17, the Cleveland pass rush isn’t as intimidating as it was previously. The Browns also have several other injury concerns on that side of the ball that could hinder them. After all, the Browns gave up over 300 passing yards to Pittsburgh’s backup quarterbacks last week and gave up 38 points to the Steelers in Week 5.

Full Game Prediction

To beat the Steelers for a second straight week, the Browns will need to dominate the game with their rushing attack and keep the ball away from Roethlisberger. The Cleveland defense might be able to force a low-scoring game because of how limited the Steelers can be offensively at times. However, the game could come down to Chubb running the ball and Mayfield proving that he’s a threat to create big plays in the passing game.

Make sure you sign up for a BetQL subscription before the playoffs get underway. You’ll have access to critical stats and trends, as well as our model’s official Browns vs Steelers prediction against the spread.

Bryan Zarpentine
Prediction Written by
Bryan Zarpentine

Bryan Zarpentine is a freelance writer and editor who specializes in sports and sports betting. Over the years, he has covered the NFL, MLB, college football, college basketball, and international and club soccer. Bryan is a graduate of Syracuse University and a lifelong fan of the Orange, as well as the New York Mets, Denver Broncos, and Tottenham Hotspur. When he’s not watching sports, there’s nothing he loves more than writing about sports, especially taking on unpopular opinions.

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