Atlanta Falcons vs

Carolina Panthers Prediction

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Prediction

Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off with a bitter NFC South rivalry as the Atlanta Falcons travel up the east coast to take on the Carolina Panthers. This matchup will take place at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on Thursday, October 29th. The Panthers are currently installed as a 2.5-point favorite and the over/under is set at 49 total points. For more information on this game, please read our full Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons prediction below.

Carolina Panthers Preview

The Carolina Panthers have shown a lot of improvement after last year’s late season debacle. Having finished last season with an 8 game losing streak, the Panthers organization decided it was time to clean house. They released their franchise QB Cam Newton and let go of their longtime head coach Ron Rivera. Carolina hired Matt Rhule to be their new head coach and Teddy Bridgewater to be their new quarterback. 7 games into the Matt Rhule era, the Panthers have a SU record of 3-4. They opened the year with back-to-back losses to Las Vegas and Tampa Bay. Carolina followed that by winning 3 straight games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, and Atlanta Falcons. Since then, they’ve suffered one-score losses to the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints. The Panthers are 4-3 against the spread and Unders are 4-3 in Carolina’s 7 games this season. On offense, Carolina prefers to rely on an efficient passing game. They pass the ball on 57.24% of their offensive plays, which ranks 14th in the NFL in percentage of pass plays. Carolina is 6th in net yards per pass attempt, averaging 7.5 net ypa. Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady was renowned for his downfield passing attack when he was the passing game coordinator at LSU and he has successfully brought something similar to the NFL, despite Bridgewater’s reputation as a dink-and-dunk quarterback. Carolina ranks 19th in the yards/rush, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. RB Christian McCaffrey went down early in the season with an injury, so they’ve had to rely on Mike Davis and his 4.0 ypc average. However, there is speculation that Christian McCaffrey may play in this game. The Panthers’ big problem on offense has been their poor red zone play. Carolina ranks 28th in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring touchdowns on just 52.0% of their red zone opportunities. On defense, Carolina ranks 17th in yards per play allowed (5.6 ypp). The Panthers have an average defense with an extremely clear delineation between early downs and late downs. On 1st and 2nd downs, the Panthers rank 5th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. On 3rd downs, Carolina’s defensive unit ranks 32nd in EPA/play allowed. Continue reading our Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers prediction for a preview of the Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are having a wildly frustrating year. In 2019, Atlanta finished the season winning 6 of their last 8 games. The Falcons’ hot finish was enough to save Head Coach Dan Quinn’s job and build optimism for the 2020 season. However, this year has been characterized by blown leads and nightmarish 4th quarters. In Week 2, the Falcons blew a 15 point lead with 6 minutes left to lose to the Dallas Cowboys. In Week 3, Atlanta blew a 16 point lead with 7 minutes left to lose to the Chicago Bears. Last week, ESPN’s win probability model gave Atlanta a 96.6% of winning against the Lions with 34 seconds left, before they gave up a touchdown and lost 23-22. Atlanta is 1-6 SU and Dan Quinn was fired after the 5th game of the season. They’ve broken the hearts of many bettors who’ve had the stomach to back them, going 2-5 ATS so far. Offensively, the Falcons could be characterized as having an average passing game and a weak running game. Atlanta ranks 10th in passing play percentage, throwing the ball on 61.13% of their offensive plays. The Falcons’ offensive staff places a heavy burden on QB Matt Ryan to carry the offense. They rank 15th in net yards per pass attempt, gaining 6.9 net ypa. Atlanta averages just 3.8 yards per rush attempt, placing them 29th among the league's 32 teams. Atlanta scores 26.3 points per game and ranks 12th in scoring offense. Their scoring numbers are helped greatly by their ability to take care of the football. The Falcons give the ball away on just 7.4% of their offensive drives, the 6th-best mark in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, an argument could be made that they have the worst defense in the NFL. They give up 6.6 yards per play, the highest average in the entire league. Atlanta’s run defense actually appears formidable, ranking 7th in yards allowed per rush (4.0). However, they give up 8.2 net yards per pass attempt. The Falcons allow teams to score touchdowns on 73.1% of their opponents’ red zone attempts, which ranks 28th in red zone TD defense. They give up 29.6 points per game (26th in the NFL) and it’s no wonder why they have so many blown leads on their resume.

Full Game Prediction

For the Carolina Panthers to win this game, they must attack Atlanta through the air. Atlanta’s pass defense has been poor all season and there is no reason why Carolina shouldn’t be able to take advantage of it. Teddy Bridgewater ranks 2nd in the NFL in completion percentage at 72.2%, so he should be able to get the ball to WRs Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore in a consistent way. Also, Carolina must take advantage of Atlanta’s poor red zone defense. The Panthers have had trouble punching the ball in from inside the 20s, but Atlanta’s defense should give them the opportunity to correct that. For the Atlanta Falcons to win this game, Matt Ryan must be elite on 3rd down. Matt Rhule’s defense has proven that they can stifle teams on early downs. However, 3rd down has given Carolina trouble throughout the year. Atlanta has the weapons to get big chunks of yardage even if they are faced with 3rd-and-8 or 3rd-and-9. Atlanta’s offensive line must protect Matt Ryan against a Carolina pass rush that ranks last in the NFL in sack rate and Ryan must connect with WRs Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones. Subscribe to BetQL to get our model’s Carolina vs. Atlanta prediction and see all the data we have on this game.