UFC San Diego Best Bets + Exclusive Interview With Marlon Vera

Last week’s card may be hard to top after 10-fights ended in 10-finishes. However, if there was ever a card to do it, UFC San Diego could be the one! Headlining a very fun card is the extremely dangerous #5 Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera going up against the bantamweight legend #8 Dominick Cruz! A win from either fighter gets them one step closer to the champion, Aljamain Sterling. Before the bantamweights can throw down, a card full of bangers is locked and loaded!

Only two weeks after Amanda Nunes reclaimed her crown, her wife #9 Nina Nunes takes on #12 Cynthia Calvillo. Some of the other scraps include Bruno Silva v Gerald Meerschaert, Angela Hill v Lupita Gomez, Nate Landwehr v David Onama, and many more! With lots of fun fights being only a few days away, let’s discuss my best bets for UFC San Diego: Vera v Cruz Saturday, August 13th on ESPN & ESPN+! (Note: Odds accurate as of 8/11 on FanDuel.)

Tyson Nam (20-12-1) vs. Ode Osbourne (11-4) 

Nam (+200) vs. Osbourne (-265), 4:45pm EST 

Let’s start with the underdogs! And let me preface by reminding to never throw down too much money on an underdog! Play it small, it’s a shot at slim chances. We don’t expect every underdog bet to hit, folks. The higher the odds, the less you should be betting. Tyson Nam is sitting at a +200 right now. I certainly think that is worth a small play. Don’t let Nam’s 2-3 record in the UFC fool you. His only losses are to great fighters in Sergio Pettis, Kai Kara-France, and Matt Schnell.

Tyson has a proven chin, crisp boxing, and a great gas tank. Not to mention, Ode’s striking style will favor Nam’s gameplan. Ode has a karate-based style, his chin is often way above his hands and his long frame. Having been finished twice (one by a brutal flying knee KO), I think Ode will be outstruck here and be at a risk of being finished for a third time, especially as the fight goes on. Look for the 38 year old to cash our first underdog ticket of the night!

BEST BET: TYSON NAM

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Priscila Cachoeira (11-4) v Ariane Lipski (14-7) 

Cachoeira (+172) vs. Lipski (-225), 7pm EST 

This fight was supposed to go down last week in Vegas, however Ariane Lipski missed weight and didn’t get cleared by the commission. I was already all over Priscila Cachoeira as an underdog before the Lipski health issues, but now I like the odds even more. It’s always risky for a fighter to make weight 2-weeks in a row, especially when they had a health issue and missed weight too. This could put Lipski at a disadvantage in the cage, especially as the fight goes on.

Lipski’s main point of attack is her grappling, very reliant on sloppy clinch takedowns. Cachoeira has struggled against BJJ experts in the past, but her takedown defense has always held up. Priscila outstrikes Lipski, her gas tank is proven and I believe her defensive grappling is good enough to match Lipski’s submission threat (which will decrease as the fight goes on). The odds keep swelling too, so maybe hold off and see how high Cachoeira’s odds will go?

BEST BET: PRISCILA CACHOEIRA

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Cynthia Calvillo (9-4-1) vs. Nina Nunes (10-7) 

Calvillo (-180) vs. Nunes +140), 8:45pm EST 

I don’t often bet with this specific strategy in mind, but sometimes it’s unavoidable. The strategy being, betting against a fighter rather than betting on a fighter. What’s the difference? Although Cynthia Calvillo is a legitimate ranked flyweight, I’m not betting on her skillset so much as I am betting on Nina Nunes’s recent decline. Not only is Nina fighting a weight class up, she has also just seemed like a completely different fighter since she gave birth to her daughter.

I see Cynthia controlling Nunes on the canvas and against the cage for 15-minutes. I think a submission threat could also be there. Even if this fight stays standing, Nunes hasn’t shown any striking threat in almost four years. I don’t love how the odds are still climbing, but I’d play Calvillo anywhere up to -190.

BEST BET: CYNTHIA CALVILLO

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Bruno Silva (22-7) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (34-15) 

Silva (-310) vs. Meerschaert (+230), 7:45pm EST

Although it may be what I consider to be the safest play of the night, it is also my least favorite bet on the card. I am a big Gerald Meerschaert fan, so betting against him always hurts a little. Gerald’s style of fighting is no secret to anyone: throw big strikes, close the distance, take your opponent down, and wear them out with submission attempts for 15-minutes. He has seen some real success with this gameplan, especially as an underdog.

Even though this may seem like another recipe for success, Bruno Silva just isn’t the one. Not only is Silva credentialed enough in BJJ to match (possibly beat) Meerschaert’s grappling, but he also has a good enough gas tank to contend with Gerald’s. I don’t even believe Gerald will be able to use his grappling though. I think he gets KO’d early by Bruno who is a KO artist on top of his BJJ black belt. Fresher, younger, more dangerous. Throw Bruno Silva in a parlay if you don’t bet him by finish as a single!

BEST BET: BRUNO SILVA (parlayed w/Vera at -118)

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Marlon Vera (19-7-1) vs. Dominick Cruz (24-3) 

Vera (-250) vs. Cruz (+190), 10:00pm EST 

Keeping in mind the Bruno Silva pick, we also love Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera going up against Dominick Cruz. A Vera/Silva parlay is around a -115 right now. It will likely be my biggest play of the night. Dom Cruz is never someone to take lightly. Even at 37 years old, he is still looking sharp and his fight IQ will never fade. However, younger fighters by six-plus years win at a 60% rate.

Forgetting about that “next-gen” statistic, let’s talk about Chito Vera himself. He is a bad matchup for Cruz. Cruz is very reliant on distance control and movement in his striking. Vera puts on such a pace & pressure that Cruz won’t be able to dance around him like he is accustomed to doing. I see Vera dealing a lot of damage to Cruz over five rounds. This may be the first time we as fans notice Cruz aging. Vera is 4-1 in his last 5 (only loss being to Jose Aldo) and I think his winning streak resumes.

BEST BET: MARLON VERA (parlayed w/Silva at -118)