Will This Stat Help Lead Northwestern Over Its Win Total?

How in the world did Northwestern win eight games last season?!

The program was coming off a 1-11 record in 2022 and had an offseason full of chaos, including a massive hazing scandal that led to longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald being fired. The Wildcats seemed set up for anything but success entering 2023, yet they went 8-5 overall and 5-4 in conference play.

Northwestern hired David Braun as head coach, and he deserves a ton of credit for the team's performance last season. However, it was the defense that carried the Wildcats to each of their eight victories.

Among all Big Ten teams, Northwestern ranked second in total tackles (914), third in interceptions (13) and forced fumbles (12), and seventh in sacks (30.0) for the entire season.

Sportsbooks don't expect the same type of success this season, with FanDuel listing the Wildcats' win total at 4.5. However, fans should expect another dominant season on the defensive side of the ball because Northwestern returns 88% of its defensive production from last season, the most in all of college football.

Will Defense Dictate Win Total?

The Wildcats made a living off opponent mistakes in 2023. Their 13 interceptions were tied with Wisconsin for the third-most in the Big Ten, only behind Michigan (18) and Maryland (17). Three of those picks came from linebacker Xander Mueller. He returns for his fourth season with the Cats after recording 110 tackles a year ago.

As the team's best pass rusher, Aidan Hubbard is also an important returnee, finishing 2023 with six sacks. Tackles Carmine Bastone and Najee Story should both take another step forward and continue to bolster the defensive line.

My biggest concern for this defense is in the secondary. The Cats lost their best corner, Rod Heard, who transferred to Notre Dame. Heard recorded 152 tackles with two picks and six pass breakups in his two years at Northwestern.

Corner Garnett Hollis and safety Jaheem Joseph also moved on in the offseason with both players heading to West Virginia. Replacing those three will be a tall task for the Cats, but defensive backs Coco Azema and Devin Turner are a good place to start.

Even if we don't see significant improvement at the position, I still think this team can hit the over on their win total. Their schedule is difficult, but they don't have to play former Pac-12 schools Oregon, USC, and UCLA, which is a huge positive.

Northwestern should beat Eastern Illinois, Miami University and Indiana. Duke, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin and Maryland will be much more competitive, but the quality of the Wildcats' defense should lead to 2-3 wins within that group.

That would get them to five, maybe six, wins on the season, hitting the over on their preseason total of 4.5 wins.