Week 12 NCAAF Sharp Report
College football line movement, sharp bets and heavy public favorites for Week 12
Matthew Horner - Nov 18, 2022, 10:15am EST
It's hard to keep up with all the action on Saturdays with so many teams playing all at once, and even harder to sort through all the games to find some great value on the board. The good news is, you don't have to if you're a BetQL subscriber.
Not only do we feature our model's best bets in expert articles, but we also have live data tracking what the public is betting, what the sharps are betting and how the lines are moving. When you subscribe to BetQL, you'll gain access to all of that real-time data, as well as the best bets and key trends for every game based on those live lines.
Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview BetQL's helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NFL Week 11. Start your free trial today!
Note: data presented below was found on BetQL.com as of 10:00am EST on Friday November 18, 2022. Subject to change.
It's hard to keep up with all the action on Saturdays with so many teams playing all at once, and even harder to sort through all the games to find some great value on the board. The good news is, you don't have to if you're a BetQL subscriber.
Not only do we feature our model's best bets in expert articles, but we also have live data tracking what the public is betting, what the sharps are betting and how the lines are moving. When you subscribe to BetQL, you'll gain access to all of that real-time data, as well as the best bets and key trends for every game based on those live lines.
Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview BetQL's helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NFL Week 11. Start your free trial today!
Note: data presented below was found on BetQL.com as of 10:00am EST on Friday November 18, 2022. Subject to change.
Line Movement: No. 14 Ole Miss vs. Arkansas
This is one of the key games in Week 12 where we have seen some significant line movement from the opening number. Ole Miss took a loss to Alabama in their last game, but man, they kept it close and had a chance. Arkansas also had a performance of the ages when they covered a +3.5 spread against LSU with their backup QB in.
People are clearly expecting points in this game, with two SEC schools battling it out. We started out with the total opening at 59, but that line has since shot up quickly, and now we sit with a huge number of 64.5 on the board. There's not a lot of love out there for the Rebels or Razorbacks defense, it seems. It's worth noting that Arkansas is 7-3 to the O/U this season while Ole Miss is 5-5 to the O/U this season.
What this all means is books have seen a massive influx of cash coming in on the OVER. You can clearly see this on our "Line Movement" page of our website, which will show you the difference between the opening line and current number. BetQL's lines change immediately when the sportsbooks change theirs, so you can always count on us to have the most updated number.
See our model's best bets for this game below and be sure to check out all line movement data for this week's slate of games!
Sharp Money: No. 22 Cincinnati vs. Temple
The Bearcats will be invading Eastern Pennsylvania when they travel to take on the Temple Owls. The game is not predicted to be especially close, with the spread sitting at -17. That may not even be enough if you trust the sharp bettors. The smart folks are loving the favorite in this game, and maybe there is some value to be had here at the current number with the Bearcats.
At the time of this writing, 86% of tickets are backing Temple to cover as the +17 underdog, but just 12% of the money is backing those tickets. A whopping 88% of the total money is backing Cincinnati versus the spread, but just 14% of tickets. That's a 74% difference between the total money wagered on Cincinnati and the total ticket percentage, a huge sharp bet. This is a big spread, but the big spenders are loving the Bearcats to destroy the Owls.
This data is available for every game of the slate for BetQL subscribers, so they always know which bet the high-rollers are backing. Compare this with our best bets for this game below.
Public Bets: Colorado vs. No. 15 Washington
Wow, we have a public dog here ladies and gents. Who would have thought that Colorado, of all teams, would be the one everyone is on? I mean, this team is terrible and they are 2-8 ATS on the season so far. Washington is at 5-5 ATS, so they have been average at covering.
Taking a look at our data, a huge 77% of the tickets are on Colorado +31, so pretty much everyone is betting on the Buffaloes to keep it within 30 points against the Huskies to cover the spread.
Betting against the public can be a smart strategy, though, when it creates value on the opposite side. It doesn't always pan out, so you always have to be mindful of how you're factoring in this data, but BetQL will help you make these decisions with our model projections and analysis. Find out if our model is aligned with the public.
Take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is projecting for NFL Week 11! Start your free trial today!