Week 10 College Football Public & Sharp Betting Report
College football line movement, sharp bets and heavy public favorites for Week 10
Matthew Horner - Nov 4, 2022, 9:26am EDT
The college season has seen so many twists and turns, crazy comebacks and huge blowout victories, and it's hard to keep up with it all with so many teams in action every Saturday. The good news is, you don't have to. Leave that to BetQL.
Not only do we have our model's best bets and expert articles, but we also have live data tracking what the public is betting, where the sharps are betting and how the lines are moving. When you subscribe to BetQL, you'll gain access to all of that real-time data, as well as the best bets and key trends for every game.
Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview of one of BetQL's most helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NFL Week 9. Start your free trial today!
Note: data presented below was found on BetQL.com as of 6:00pm EST on Wednesday November 2, 2022. Subject to change.
Line Movement: California at No. 9 USC
This is one of the key games in Week 10 where we have seen some significant line movement from the opening number. USC has been a powerhouse all season long under new head coach Lincoln Riley, and now they set their sights on an easier opponent in California.
The Golden Bears haven't been a very good football team in a long time, unfortunately, and that remains the case this season. There is a reason no one wants to bet them right now to cover a large spread on the road. We started out with USC being favored by 18.5, but that line has since jumped quickly, and now we sit with a massive number of 21.5 on the board. The Trojans are clearly getting a lot of respect with that type of move, but people also just might be thinking there is no way they can bet the Golden Bears on the road. California is 4-4 ATS, while USC is a slightly more impressive 5-3 ATS.
What this all means is books have seen a massive influx of cash coming in on the Trojans. You can clearly see this on our "Line Movement" page of our website, which will show you the difference between the opening line and current number. BetQL's lines change immediately when the sportsbooks change theirs, so you can always count on us to have the most updated number.
See our model's best bets for this game below and be sure to check out all line movement data for this week's slate of games!
Sharp Money: No. 10 UCLA at Arizona State
UCLA has finally seen a resurgence under head coach Chip Kelly, and now the team looks to be a contender for the Pac-12 Championship. The smart folks are loving the underdog in this game though, and maybe there is some value to be had here at the current number with the Sun Devils.
At the time of this writing, 76% of tickets are backing UCLA to cover as the -10.5 favorite, but just 28% of the money is backing those tickets. A whopping 72% of the total money is backing Arizona State versus the spread, but just 24% of tickets. That's a 48% difference between the total money wagered and the total ticket percentage, a huge sharp bet. This is a big spread, but the big spenders are loving the Sun Devils to make the game close against the Bruins.
This data is available for every game of the slate for BetQL subscribers, so they always know which bet the high-rollers are backing. Compare this with our best bets for this game below.
Public Bets: No. 16 Penn State at Indiana
Penn State has been one of the most prestigious programs in college football, and when they go up against a poor opponent like Indiana after a loss, it's just another reason why the public is all over them. Penn State is 5-3 ATS on the season so far, while Indiana is a poor 3-5 ATS. These teams have been going in opposite directions.
Taking a look at our data, a huge 93% of the tickets are on Penn State -14, so pretty much everyone is betting on the Nittany Lions to whip up on the Hoosiers and cover the spread.
Betting against the public can be a smart strategy, though, when it creates value on the opposite side. It doesn't always pan out, so you always have to be mindful of how you're factoring in this data, but BetQL will help you make these decisions with our model projections and analysis. Find out if our model is aligned with the public.
Take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is projecting for NCAAF Week 10! Start your free trial today!