Values & Fades: Power 5 Conference Winners Edition

College football is almost here! One of the first things we want to do in the betting world is look at college football futures odds to see if we can find some value before the season starts.

With that in mind, BetQL has simulated the 2022 college football season 10,000 times, and we have our projections on which Power 5 teams are primed to win their respective conferences. Armed with that information, we can list our projections alongside sportsbooks' lines to find the value for conference winner futures.

Let's take a look at BetQL's projections and the notable teams with the highest differences between our probabilities and DraftKings' odds. There is some great value on the board, so make sure to take advantage and join us for a free trial at BetQL for another profitable college football season!

Best Values To Win Their Conference In Power 5

UCLA Bruins, Pac-12; Best odds: +1000 at FanDuel

This is what UCLA has been building towards for years and years, and the time may finally have arrived where the Bruins can say they are back as a program. Everyone my age has heard the stories of how great it used to be a very long time ago, but the school has never been a powerhouse since I have been watching. There might be a ton of big personnel losses from last year’s squad, but they have a great veteran quarterback in Dorian Thompson-Robinson, good offensive and defensive lines, a surprising amount of depth, a strong kicking game, a favorable schedule and reinforcements from a good recruiting class to go along with some fantastic transfer portal acquisitions. They have the tools you look for in a sleeper team, and this could be the team this year that shocks everyone and comes out of the Pac-12 as champions.

Chip Kelly is a great coach, despite the backlash he gets. Most of that derives from his failed tenure in the NFL, and three straight losing seasons to start his run at UCLA, but this was a program that needed a complete and total overhaul. All of the pressure in 2022 is going to be on USC and their shining star Lincoln Riley. Utah also will have a lot of pressure on them after their championship victory last season over Oregon, and if they can repeat as champs. Speaking of Oregon, they always have pressure on their shoulders to do well with the amount of talent they have. Perhaps that pressure is too much for some of these teams? I really don't think Riley will immediately turn USC back into what it used to be, it is still USC. I really like Utah, and I think they have a great team, but there is no value there in the line.

Let's go to where there is value, and that is the Bruins. You can find 10/1 odds on UCLA to win the Pac-12 at FanDuel, which to us is some really great bang for your buck. We give the Bruins a 22% chance to take the conference in our projections, but this line is implying a less than 10% chance they do just that. A difference of 13% against our projections makes UCLA one of our best value plays on the board for Power 5 conference teams.

Oregon State Beavers, Pac-12; Best odds: +3200 at FanDuel

Another Pac-12 team with value? Yes, another Pac-12 team with value. When it comes to the Power 5 conferences, almost every one of them has a clear-cut favorite to win, except for the Pac-12. Not a single team in the conference is laying money, every team is at plus-money value. That tells me that oddsmakers don't really see a team in this conference that is far superior to the others, which leaves the gates open for sleeper teams like UCLA and Oregon State to have big seasons and perhaps cause a stir.

No, Oregon State doesn’t have the talent of a USC, but they beat the Trojans 45-27 last year. Let's see, what else did this underrated team do last year? Oh, that's right, they beat Washington as well. There are two teams that are currently ahead of them on the odds board that they managed to beat just last season. Can we make it three? Absolutely, they also took down Arizona State. Finally, they managed to beat the eventual Pac-12 Champion Utah Utes by eight points as well. There might not be the star power of the top Pac-12 teams, but there’s a lot of returning experience that managed to beat those teams. Oregon State isn't some big-name school with flashy style, this is more of a tough workhorse team that has been steadily rising the past few years under head coach Jonathan Smith. The offense should be rock solid again with the majority of the unit returning, and the defense will see some changes, but that should be a good thing.

Right now, the Beavers are a massive longshot to win the conference at +3200, but it is interesting that DraftKings has them at just +2500. That is a mighty big difference between two of the leading sportsbooks. Personally, I really don't think anyone knows how the Pac-12 will play out. We here at BetQL think this line is a bit absurd for a team that has proven themselves against the best their conference has to offer. FanDuel is basically saying they have a 3% chance to win the conference, which is a huge 13% difference from our projections, which give Oregon State a 16% chance to take it. Why not take a shot on this team with a little sprinkle at 32/1?

Worst Value To Win Their Conference In Power 5

Alabama Crimson Tide, SEC; Shortest odds: -140 at FanDuel

This seems to be a FanDuel-heavy article, but that is perfectly fine, as long as we are getting the best values. Speaking of that, here's a team that you definitely should not be laying -140 odds with on a future bet to win a conference that is filled with an insane amount of talent. I know it will take a lot for the common bettor to avoid taking Alabama to win the SEC after last year's championship loss. The whole Nick Saban revenge angle plays well for some, and who knows, it could happen. I just don't think there is much value in laying these kinds of odds on them, and neither do our projections.

I have already said before why there are a few reasons not to be backing Bama at such a juicy number, but I will go through some of them again. This is going to be a difficult schedule for the Crimson Tide, with not as many cupcake games against The Citadel to boost their record. For the average college football team, this schedule would mark death. This is Alabama though, not a Boise State. A total of zero people will be shedding tears for the Crimson Tide that they have to play some tough opponents. They will still be favored in every game they play, and could realistically go 12-0 this year, but there are just far too many concerns for me to possibly back them at -140 to win this conference. What happens if Bryce Young gets injured for a stretch of the season? What if the receiving corps didn’t simply reload with more superstar talent, and perhaps we are overrating all these new guys? What if Texas A&M rises up and becomes the team to beat in 2022, or maybe it’s Texas or Arkansas?

Too many questions in my opinion, and our projections agree with me. We give Alabama a 40% chance to take this conference, while these odds are implying almost 59%. That is a difference of 19%, and it is clearly one of the worst values on the board at this number. Don't be fooled, they want you to lay this because it is Alabama. Instead, look for value elsewhere.