The highly-antipated reboot of EA Sports’ College Football series is now downloadable and the upcoming real-life NCAA season is just weeks away. After years of game development and an overwhelming craving finally becoming reality for college football fans and gamers, there are some interesting insights to pay attention to as it relates to the intersection between the game’s team and player rankings with real-life betting markets.
Per the EA Sports game website, “The Development Team meticulously examined hundreds of thousands of data points to arrive at our team power rankings. With help from our friends at Pro Football Focus (PFF), the team analyzed all 134 rosters, thousands of players, years worth of game film, and mountains of stats, ultimately arriving at our Team Power Rankings.”
Let’s take a look at some of the game’s top storylines and take a look at how we can find success in both betting markets and in your Dynasty Mode!
1. Colorado & Sanders Are Vastly Underrated In Betting Markets
The most glaring discrepancy between the game and betting markets is Colorado’s high ranking. The Buffaloes rank 16th in the game with an 87 team ranking despite the fact that they have a 5.5-win team total at every sportsbook. For context, that means they’re on the bubble of being a bowl-eligible team, not a championship or College Football Playoff contender. (At FanDuel, they have 300/1 odds to win the National Championship!)
With matchups vs. North Dakota State, at Nebraska, at Colorado State, vs. Baylor, at UCF, vs. Kansas State, at Arizona, vs. Cincinnati, at Texas Tech, vs. Utah, at Kansas and vs. Oklahoma State, this could be a complete and utter disaster for Deion Sanders’ program coming off of a 4-8 season in which they dropped eight of their last nine games, all against Pac-12 opponents. They also saw a lot of turnover on the roster and on their coaching staff.
Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders is also ranked 93 overall, which puts him as the top-ranked QB in the game. He's listed between 20/1 and 45/1 to win the Heisman in real life across our sportsbook partners with longer odds than Carson Beck, Dillon Gabriel, Quinn Ewers, Jalen Milrow, Will Howard, Jaxson Dart, Nico Iamaleava, Garrett Nussmeier, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Avery Johnson, Conner Weigman, Jackson Arnold and Jalon Daniels. Yet, in the game, he’s ranked ahead of all of these guys from a talent perspective. Of course talent doesn’t translate 1:1 to Heisman odds, but it’s still interesting to note this, especially after he completed 69.3% of his passes for 3,230 yards with 27 touchdown passes compared to just three interceptions last season (but took 52 sacks).
2. Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon II Is Viable Heisman Sleeper
Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon checks in as the highest-rated offensive skill position player in the game with 96 overall, 90 speed, 97 acceleration, 79 strength and 97 awareness. Coming off an incredible season in which he carried the ball 285 times for 1,732 yards (6.1 YPC) with 21 rushing scores and also caught 39 passes for 330 additional yards with another score in 14 games played, the 6’1, 211-pound junior is slated to have another incredible year.
Scheduled to face South Dakota State, Arkansas, Tulsa, Utah, Kansas State, West Virginia, BYU, Baylor, Arizona State, TCU, Texas Tech and Colorado, there should be no major barriers for a repeat year, barring injury or off-field issues.
At BetMGM, 26 players have shorter odds than him (+6600) to win the Heisman, so there’s seemingly a solid value, since he’s as short as +1600 elsewhere.
3. Clemson Is Also Underrated In Betting Markets
EA Sports is ranking Clemson 6th overall which is a bit of a surprise since they have +200 real-life odds (33.3% implied probability) to make the expanded College Football Playoff, +400 odds (20% implied) to win the ACC and +5500 odds (1.79% implied) to win the National Championship at FanDuel with a win total ranging from 9.0 to 9.5, depending on the book.
After a huge opener against Georgia, the Tigers will face Appalachian State, NC State, Stanford, Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, The Citadel and South Carolina this year and even if they lose that opener (which they probably will), there’s a clear path to the College Football Playoff for Dabo Swinney’s program after they underachieved with a 9-4 record last season.
While there was some year-to-year turnover due to graduations and the NFL Draft, this is one of the few programs in the country that can turn the page and have elite talent take over on both sides of the football. Cade Klubnik is coming off his first full season at QB and could also be in store for a breakout year. Overall, the game (and I) think we could see a return to glory for this storied program in 2024.
4. Liberty Has Best Top-End Talent Among Non Major Conference Schools
While Liberty didn’t crack EA Sports’ Top 25, let’s not overlook the fact that both QB Kaidon Salter (90th overall) and Liberty RB Quinton Cooley (100th overall) both made the Top 100 Player Rankings, coming in as the 8th-best QB and 14th-best RB, respectively.
Salter was given a 90 overall ranking with 87 speed, 92 acceleration and 94 awareness while Cooley was also given a 90 overall ranking with 88 speed, 92 acceleration and 90 awareness. In real life, Salter completed 61.0% of his passes for 2,876 yards, 32 touchdowns and six interceptions last year, but was one of the best dual threat QB’s in the nation, racking up 1,089 yards on 163 carries (6.7 YPC) on the ground with 12 more touchdowns. Cooley took 221 carries for 1,401 yards (6.3 YPC) with 16 rushing touchdowns last season and this should be one of the most dynamic QB-RB duos in the nation in real life (and in the game).
The Flames own a 10.5-game win total at most books, which is indicative of both their dominance last year (13-0 before their 45-6 Fiesta Bowl loss to Oregon) and their schedule this year: Campbell, New Mexico State, UTEP, East Carolina, Appalachian State, Florida International, Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, Middle Tennessee, Massachusetts, Western Kentucky and Sam Houston.
While Liberty may not be the project you’re looking for when starting your Dynasty Mode (I'm going to target a complete rebuild personally), be sure to keep in mind that this is going to be a very tough game to win if you’re on their 2024 schedule. So, if you were planning to take over a team like UMass or Sam Houston, know that this is pretty much going to be an automatic L… until you rebuild your program (or play on rookie difficulty)!
Enjoy the game and take a look at which teams make the College Football Playoff in your first year of Dynasty Mode to give yourself some additional realistic simulation results!