Peach Bowl CFP Quarterfinal Picks: Texas vs. Arizona State

We have finally made it to the second round of the College Football Playoff after what was a very disappointing first round of action. We had blowout after blowout, with every favorite winning and covering, so there was very little resistance shown from any of the underdogs. Hopefully, we can get some much more competitive games here in the second round, with some very exciting matchups on deck. However, the Peach Bowl is not expected to be one of those if you care what the bookmakers think.

The Texas Longhorns are the No. 5 seed in the CFP, while their opponent Arizona State is the No. 4 seed. The Sun Devils had a bye week last week after earning that top-4 seed, and you would think they would be favored as the higher-ranked team, right? Well, you’d be wrong once again. In fact, the Longhorns are a massive -13.5 favorite in this game over the Sun Devils, so it is projected to be a multiple-score beatdown. It is pretty clear that the bookmakers value the SEC far more than the Big-12, as the Sun Devils are champions of their conference while the Longhorns didn’t even win the SEC championship, yet are laying nearly two touchdowns.

Taking a look at their schedules, Texas played a whopping six ranked teams in 2024. They beat No. 10 Michigan 31-12, No. 18 Oklahoma 34-3, No. 25 Vanderbilt 27-24, and No. 20 Texas A&M 17-7. They lost twice to Georgia, once on October 19 by a score of 30-15, and then in the SEC championship 22-19 in overtime. No one can doubt Texas based on their schedule, as they played a ton of ranked teams this year and are battle-tested.

Arizona State played four ranked teams through their schedule before the playoffs, which isn’t too shabby. They beat No. 16 Utah 27-19, No. 16 Kansas State 24-14, No. 14 BYU 28-23, and No. 16 Iowa State 45-19 in the Big-12 championship game. What is most impressive for them is that they defeated every ranked team they have faced so far, but they also haven’t faced a top-10 ranked team all season, either.

Taking a look at the current betting splits over at DraftKings Sportsbook, 53% of the handle is on Texas -13.5. On the moneyline, we are seeing the same thing, with 54% of the total cash backing the Longhorns. There is very little doubt that the house at nearly every book is going to need the Sun Devils in this game to at least cover the spread, and certainly to win outright to kill the many moneyline parlays that the Longhorns are a part of.

Personally, I bet Arizona State at +14.5 for a smaller amount. I do find it quite interesting that the line has now moved down below that two-touchdown marker, despite the majority of the cash being on the Longhorns. I think that we are going to see at least one upset in this round of the playoffs after all the favorites won and covered so easily last round. I did not bet the Sun Devils on the moneyline as of yet, but I think they have a chance to keep it competitive enough.

If you want to nibble on their moneyline at +410 odds, I think it is worth a small sprinkle. It is unlikely, and I think Boise State has a better shot as a large underdog, but I also wouldn’t be totally shocked if Texas lost this game. Just like Penn State, they are always in the running for disappointment of the year, so we will see if they can break that narrative and win when they are supposed to.

Best Bets: Arizona State +14.5, no bet at 13.5. Sprinkle ML +410 for baby peanuts.