NCAAF Week 5 Sharp Report: Betting Picks and Public Action Insights

In Week 5 of the college football season, sharp bettors are eyeing some intriguing matchups and public betting trends. My sharp report for the week highlights Baylor's chance to cover at home against a ranked BYU squad, Georgia's potential to take down Alabama as a slight road underdog, and USF's upset potential against Tulane. Understanding the market movements and public action is key to making smart wagers, and these picks offer a great balance of value and strategy. Let’s break down the top sharp picks for Week 5.

Baylor -3 vs. #22 BYU

This is the first game that I had my eye on as soon as the market opened, and while I always wait to see where the market goes in terms of tickets and money, I have little doubt that I will be placing a wager on the Baylor Bears come Saturday morning. These teams just had contrasting performances in Week 4, and the public is always on the “what have you done for me lately?” train to Poorsville. Baylor choked the game away against Colorado on a late hail mary and lost in overtime, while BYU crushed a ranked Kansas State team 38-9. Now, the Cougars are a ranked underdog on the road.

Ranked underdogs are always going to be a public darling, especially when they face an unranked team. According to BetMGM’s John Ewing, 70 percent of total tickets on the spread in this game are being written for BYU. They are also the third most bet underdog at plus money to win the game outright. To anyone that can decipher what that means in sports betting talk, it means that the books need the Bears to cover the number here and win. I think they do just that, and finally humble an overachieving BYU team.

#2 Georgia ML at #4 Alabama (+105)

This game has two-way action on the spread, however, when you account for moneyline bets it becomes a different story. Georgia vs. Alabama is always going to garner a ton of attention, and with all of that attention, comes a very large betting handle. The Bulldogs are coming off one of their worst performances of the season, winning 13-12 at home against an unranked Kentucky team. They just barely scraped by, while Alabama went on the road and ripped Wisconsin 42-10 in a game that was never close.

BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee sums it up pretty well for me: "Georgia-Alabama will be the most bet game so far this season. Bettors are jumping on Bama being a home underdog for the first time since 2007. Georgia winning would make our Saturday."

Indeed, nearly 60 percent of moneyline wagers are backing the Crimson Tide at +105 or better, and they are the most bet underdog to win outright on Saturday. Typically, those teams never win, as books simply wouldn’t be around if they paid out their top underdog every week. Keep that in mind before you place your wager on this massive contest.

UCF -14 vs. Colorado

Despite this being a game between two unranked teams, any game that involves coach Deion Sanders and the Buffs is going to garner a lot of action. After their comeback win on a hail mary last weekend against Baylor, the public has seemingly regained their trust in Coach Prime and Colorado, even though it was by nearly a miracle that they won the game. UCF doesn’t get talked about as much as they used to when they were in a smaller conference, but they are undefeated at 3-0, beating TCU on the road in their last game 35-34. Their offense has scored at least 35 points in all three of their games, humming along nicely, and Colorado’s defense might be one of the worst in the conference. I expect them to put up serious points.

As it stands, 72 percent of the bets are on Colorado to cover the two touchdowns, and they are the second most wagered on underdog to win outright this weekend at +400 odds at BetMGM. The Buffs are almost always a public team, so fading them every week is nearly a guarantee until they go on a losing streak.

Underdog of the Week: USF ML at Tulane (+175)

I really like the Bulls to win this game outright on the road against a very overrated Green Wave team this weekend. USF looked like they belonged on the same field as Alabama and Miami for a majority of the games they played against them, until they faltered in the fourth quarter and those teams became too much to handle. They also had to deal with some injuries, and overall, the talent gap just showed at the end.

Tulane isn’t even on the same plane of existence as those two schools. They made Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold, who was just benched against Tennessee for a true freshman, look like Patrick Mahomes when they played him. In the two games they played against any sort of serious competition, their defense got ripped to shreds. Against FBS opponents, Tulane hasn’t gotten a single stop in the red zone (13 trips, 13 scores - eight TDs and five FGs). They struggle to tackle and are just bad, plain and simple.

USF, despite playing two of the highest-ranked and best teams in the country, still ranks 46th on defense against the run. That is bad news for a Tulane offense that goes through star running back Makhi Hughes. He’s great, but the Bulls have the defense to at least contain him.

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