NCAAF Week 4 Sharp Betting Report: Top Value Picks for Ranked Matchups

As Week 4 of the college football season approaches, sharp bettors are finding value in a few key matchups, with ranked teams squaring off in pivotal games. From Oklahoma's home test against a dominant Tennessee team to Michigan's bounce-back attempt against USC, there’s a lot to unpack. Additionally, Utah’s trip to Stillwater comes with question marks around QB Cam Rising’s availability, making it a must-watch for sharp money movement. Let’s dive into Matt Horner’s full card and break down the sharp angles in these matchups, as the public and pros battle it out.

#15 Oklahoma +7 vs. #6 Tennessee, Sprinkle OU ML +222

I would expect this to be one of the most wagered-on games this weekend, as all ranked matchups are, and you might be able to get a +7.5 right before the game starts. Typically, the favorite garners a ton of attention from the public in the hour before kickoff, which can move the line quite a bit in games that will have so much attention like this one. However, it is moving to +6.5 at some places right now, so scoop up that +7 while it is there if you don’t want to risk waiting.

Simply put, Tennessee will certainly be the public team in this game. They have looked unstoppable through three weeks, outscoring their opponents 191-13 combined and just generally dominating in every phase of the game. Add in the fact that they have QB Nico Iamaleava leading the charge offensively, who is likely going to be the No. 1 pick in a future NFL Draft, and you get a recipe for public attention. 61 percent of the bets are on Tennessee, such a shocker.

Oklahoma is going to easily be the toughest team they have had to face. The Sooner defense has been great to this point, and at home, I think they will give the Vols a wake-up call that not everyone is Kent State.

#18 Michigan +6 vs. #11 USC, Sprinkle MICH ML +175

Here we go again. The last time I backed this Wolverines team, I got burned when they completely imploded against Texas, getting dominated in every facet of the game. It wasn’t even a contest, and the public won huge that day. However, once again, I am going to be on Michigan here to keep the game close when absolutely no one wants to bet on them, and I’ll even sprinkle the moneyline as well. I suspect that USC ML is going to be very popular in parlays Saturday.

Michigan has not resembled the team that won the championship last season, which makes sense considering they lost most of their important pieces from that team. However, struggling against Fresno State and Arkansas State while getting blown out at home by the only good opponent you have faced will leave quite the poor impression for the public. It is not shocking to see that 76% of the bets are on the Trojans to cover in this game.

I think we will see a better effort here from the Wolverines. They still have a solid defense, and I am not entirely convinced the Trojan defense is as good as they have shown. They haven’t played in a true road game yet, and this will be the most challenging environment they have played in.

#12 Utah +3 at #14 Oklahoma State, Under 52.5

This is difficult to give out because I don’t know the status of Utes QB Cam Rising, which could make all the difference. However, I think that the public is generally going to be on the Cowboys for this game. The line is at +2.5 pretty much everywhere right now, but I wouldn’t bet this unless you can get a +3, which would certainly come if Rising is ruled out. However, if he actually does play, paying for that key number might be worth it. I will be keeping an eye out on this game and the status of Rising, and will post my official bet this weekend on X. Make sure to follow me there @Sharp_Side_ for all of my official plays and access to my bet tracker.

Both squads are 3-0 this season, but with the health concerns of the Utah QB, the public is going to be on the home team here for this huge ranked game. The Utes are the overall better team in my opinion, and their defense has been fantastic. Taking a look at the BetMGM splits, 67 percent of bets are on the over in this game. I actually think we could see a lower-scoring contest here. Utah has been terrific against the pass, which means Ollie Gordon could be rushing a lot in this game, chewing clock. If Rising doesn’t play, that just helps even more for an under bet here.

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