NCAAF Week 4 Opening Line Analysis

NCAAF Opening Line Analysis

In the world of NCAAF betting, having a winning strategy is paramount. Welcome to the realm of opening line betting analysis, where you can usually capture a ton of value if you act quickly enough. As we dive into Week 4 college football action, let us be your guiding light to identify value so you can make the most informed decisions possible. Let's take a look at three opening lines that will be on the move leading up to kickoff.

Colorado +17 at Oregon 

Colorado barely got by Colorado State in OT (43-35), which was a letdown to the 76% of total tickets and 65% of total money that backed the Buffs to cover as 23-point favorites.

While Colorado allowed 14 points to Nebraska in a solid defensive performance, they surrendered 42 to TCU in their opener and then 35 to CSU, thus creating some major concerns against a team like Oregon that has put up 81, 38, and 55 points in their three games (against Portland State, at Texas Tech and against Hawaii).

Shedeur Sanders is an absolute star for Colorado, but Oregon QB Bo Nix has completed 77.6% of his passes for 893 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions and will deliver for Oregon. The Ducks have also averaged 7.1 yards per rush and have found pay dirt 11 times on the ground.

I expect this to move in Oregon’s favor and think it’ll close in the low-20’s. With that being said, the action backing Colorado week over week has been astronomical, so it’ll be fascinating to see how sportsbooks approach this after last week’s failed CU cover.

Rutgers +26 at Michigan

Is Rutgers back? Not only have they gone 3-0 SU, but they’ve easily covered in all three games, beating Northwestern 24-7, Temple 36-7 and Virginia Tech 35-16. This is a very defense-oriented Scarlet Knights squad and when asked, quarterback Gavin Wimsatt has been able to make plays in the passing game. But, let’s have no doubt about it: Rutgers wants to run the football. They’ve ran the ball 130 times and passed it 66 times so far. That should limit Michigan’s ability to run up the score.

The Wolverines have also been dominant in their 3-0 SU start, but they’ve gone 0-3 ATS, failing to cover against East Carolina (30-3), UNLV (35-7) and Bowling Green (31-6). Star running back duo Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards set the tone for the Wolverines offensively while their defense has been (and will be) elite. Michigan has ran the ball 95 times compared to 72 throws.

I think both teams will be run-heavy and that this will be a defensive slugfest. I’m comfortable backing Rutgers to the +21.5 mark.

Arizona -9.5 at Stanford

Arizona enters this game with a 2-1 SU record after beating Northern Arizona (38-3) in Week 1, losing at Mississippi State (31-24) in Week 2, and then beating UTEP (31-10) in Week 3.

Meanwhile, Stanford has a new head coach and is in a rebuild. After beating Hawaii on the road in their opener, the Cardinal got crushed by USC (56-10) and then just lost at home to Sacramento State (30-23). Through three games, Stanford doesn’t have a starting QB identified, as they’ve combined to throw three touchdown passes and three interceptions. While he’s been sloppy with five interceptions, Arizona QB Jayden de Laura (10 total TD - 8 passing) leads a pass-happy Arizona offense with plenty of weapons, including Tetairoa McMillan (315 yards, 3 TD) and Jacob Cowing (20 catches, 3 TD).

The Wildcats should crush in this matchup and I don’t mind backing them up to -13.5.