NCAAF Model Review: 74.1% On Most Valuable Week 4 Bets

NCAA Model Review: Week 4

• BetQL’s NCAAF Model went an amazing 83-42 (66.4%) for a total return of $1,540 on all three, four and five-star bets in Week 4, including 20-7 (74.1%) for a total return of $995 on five-star values!

• Dating back to the start of the season, the NCAAF Model has gone 14-7 (66.7%) for a total return of $578 on five-star ATS bets.

• Let’s look back on some of the most impressive projections and results from Week 4.

Alabama -6.5 vs. Ole Miss

• Our model had Alabama favored by 13 points, a 6.5-point difference.

• The final score was Alabama 24, Ole Miss 10 (Alabama -14).

• Under Nick Saban, Alabama entered the game 24-10 ATS after two or more consecutive ATS losses.

• Alabama had an “A+” Skill Matchup Grade in our model and an “A” Defense Grade vs. “B+” and “C+”, respectively, for Ole Miss.

• The Public and sharp bettors were largely undecided about this line: 49% of tickets and 51% of the money was on Bama.

• The Crimson Tide started Jalen Milroe at QB and he went 17-for-21 for 225 yards with a touchdown and an interception, doing enough as a game manager while RB Jase McClellan picked up 105 yards and a rushing TD on 17 carries. Most importantly, Alabama limited Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart (20-for-35, 244 yards, INT, 6 rushing yards) and RB Quinshon Judkins (13 carries for 56 yards). Alabama controlled possession for 34:23 compared to 25:37 from the visiting squad.

• With the win, Alabama improved to 3-1 on the year, while Ole Miss fell to 3-1. 

• Our model has now hit 58.3% of Alabama bets and 58.5% of Ole Miss bets all-time.

Georgia Southern -5.5 at Ball State

• Our model had Georgia Southern favored by 13.5 points, an 8-point difference.

• The final score was Georgia Southern 40, Ball State 3 (Georgia Southern -37).

• Under Mike Neu, Ball State was 9-22 ATS coming off an over.

• Georgia Southern had an “A” offense grade in our model vs. Ball State’s “D” grade.

• Sharps liked Ball State +5.5: 39% of the tickets, but 69% of the money was on the home team.

• Georgia Southern picked up 26 first downs compared to just 10 from Ball State and racked up 530 total yards compared to just 197 in the blowout. 

• The Eagles were led by QB Davis Brin, who went 34-for-46 for 344 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.

• With the win, Georgia Southern improved to 3-1 on the year, while Ball State fell to 1-3.

• Our model has now gone 187-100 (65.2%) on Georgia Southern bets all-time for a total return of $3,345 on $100 wagers.

UNLV +100 ML at UTEP

• Our model had UNLV favored at -242 on the moneyline, a massive 142-point difference.

• The final score was UNLV 45, UTEP 28.

• Under Dana Dimel, UTEP entered this game 4-16 SU when the moneyline was +135 to -155.

• Per BetQL’s game page, 69% of the tickets and 88% of the money backed UTEP on the moneyline, so our model was in direct contrast to the public and sharp mindset.

• UNLV RB Jai’Den Thomas balled out with 13 carries for 100 yards and 4 TD.

• UNLV forced three interceptions and went 10-for-17 on third downs, an efficient rate.

• With the win, UNLV improved to 3-1 on the year, while UTEP fell to 1-4. 

• Our model has now hit 78.1% of UNLV ML bets and 77.8% of UTEP ML bets all-time.

South Florida +125 ML vs. Rice

• Our model had South Florida favored at -176, a 101-point difference.

• The final score was South Florida 42, Rice 29.

• Coming off an impressive 17-3 loss to Alabama, South Florida took some confidence into this one, racking up an insane 597 total yards (435 through the air from a 22-for-29 showing from Byrum Brown, who threw for two TD and also rushed for 82 more yards and an additional TD).

• The star of the game (from a few choices) was USF WR Naiem Simmons, who caught eight passes for 272 yards and a TD.

• Per BetQL’s game page, 68% of the tickets and 72% of the money backed Rice’s ML.

• With the win, USF moved to 2-2 on the year while Rice fell to 2-2.

• Our model has now hit 87% of USF ML bets all-time.

James Madison at Utah State Over 53

• Our model projected the total of this game to be 60.5, a 7.5-point difference.

• The final score was James Madison 45, Utah State 38 (total: 83).

• Both offenses lit things up, as James Madison racked up 512 total yards compared to Utah State’s 500. JMU QB Jordan McCloud went 23-for-34 for 364 yards, four TD and two INT while UTST QB McCae Hillstead went 25-for-47 for 399 yards, four TD and three INT.

• This game went over the full-game total in the first half, as the score was 38-17 in favor of JMU.

• Per BetQL’s game page, 84% of tickets and 97% of the money backed the over.

• With the win James Madison moved to 4-0 on the year while Utah State fell to 1-3.

• Our model has now gone 28-18 (60.9%) on Utah State O/U bets for a total return of $746 on $100 wagers.

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