NCAAF Model Review For Week 14: Championship Weekend Proves Profitable

Week 14 NCAAF Model Results

Our college football model has been red-hot and Week 14 highlighted that fact once again.

The model projects team performance and takes into account player performance, matchups, weather, and injuries. From there, we set our line, compare it with Vegas, and assign a star rating to each game. The goal of the star rating model is to make betting straightforward. The 5-star bets are quite literally the best because the model indicates a significantly different outcome relative to the current sportsbook line. Conversely, 1-star bets indicate a projected line that is very similar to the sportsbook line — typically a losing proposition for a bettor in the long run.

Generally speaking, 3-star bets and better are recommended for the average user. A more aggressive bettor can bet 2-star games, while a more conservative bettor should stick to 4 and 5-star bets. Additionally, you can scale the wager based on star rating. For example, if you are aggressively betting all bets rated 2-stars and above, we recommend that you bet a larger percentage of your bankroll on a 5-star bet than a 2-star bet.

Let's go over this week's signature wins!

Florida State +1 vs. Louisville

BetQL Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL Projection: FSU -6.5

Final Score: FSU 16, Louisville 6

We projected the Seminoles to win this game by 7 points, and they won by 10 with their backup QB as a +1 underdog. Their defense completely shut down the Cardinals, allowing them just 188 total yards and 10 first downs. Of course, with a third-string true freshman at QB, the offense struggled. The 'Noles still did enough to win the game and complete their undefeated season in the ACC, which is certainly not easy to do. Most importantly, they cashed our best bet on them at +1.

Texas -14.5 vs. Oklahoma State

BetQL Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL Projection: Texas -20.5

Final Score: Texas 49, Oklahoma St 21

The model had two 5-star spread bets this championship weekend and it hit on both of them. Texas completely crushed the Cowboys in a 49-21 romp in the Big 12 championship, winning by 28 points and easily covering this -14.5 closing line. The defense shut down star OKST RB Ollie Gordon ll, holding him to just 34 yards on 13 carries. To be fair to him, the Cowboys were trailing the entire game, so they were forced to go to the air quite early. Still, it was lopsided and never really in doubt, which is what got the Longhorns into the CFP.

Oregon vs. Washington Under 65.5

BetQL Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL Projection: 56

Final Score: Washington 34, Oregon 31

By the hair on our chinny chin chin, we were able to cash this under by the hook. It looked like it was going to be an easy cash in the first half, but both teams went supernova in the second half on offense, and it was like a sauna for the model watching this game. We were hoping that the Huskies could close the game out on their final possession, which wouldn't allow Bo Nix a shot to win the game, and our prayers were answered. To be honest, this one was very lucky, but still chalks up a win for the model.

Get in on the action and crush bowl season with the help of the BetQL model!