Week 1 BetQL Model Performance: 1H Spreads

Finding an edge using BetQL is as easy as the flick of your thumb or the click of your mouse. Every week, our star ratings identify the most valuable bets by comparing our model’s projections with sportsbook lines. The larger the difference, the more valuable the bet. 

BetQL went 6-3 (66.7%) on ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 1st half spread bets in Week 1. Let’s go through a few winners and find out why you should consult our 1st half spread bets in Week 2… after all the model has hit 56% of ⭐⭐⭐⭐+ wagers of this type since the start of last season.

ARIZONA STATE (-15) vs. NORTHERN ARIZONA

MODEL PROJECTION: ARIZONA STATE -21

ACTUAL OUTCOME: ARIZONA STATE -21 (24-3)

The model was all over this outcome and nailed it perfectly, as Arizona State led by 21 points at the half. (The full-game spread was also mispriced; it closed at Arizona State -25.5, we had it at Arizona State -40 and the Sun Devils ended up winning by the score of 40-3.) 

With starting quarterback Emory Jones and starting running back Xazavian Valladay joining Arizona State as transfers in the offseason, it seems like coach Herm Edwards knew he had to bring in some talent in an effort to get off the hot seat. Jones went 13-of-18 for 152 yards passing, but Arizona State crushed their opponents on the ground, rushing for 267 yards, including 116 and two touchdowns from Valladay and 48 and two more scores from Jones. Meanwhile, Northern Arizona only managed 97 passing yards and 23 rushing yards in the crushing defeat. Overall, if you backed the model, you cruised to an easy win in this contest. 

COLGATE (+26) AT STANFORD

MODEL PROJECTION: COLGATE +19.5

ACTUAL OUTCOME: COLGATE +21 (7-28)

At first glance, Stanford at home against FCS opponent Colgate in the season-opener had the makings of a blowout. To be fair, the Cardinal did pull away for a 41-10 victory, but Colgate trailed by 21 at halftime. Why does this matter? The Raiders were +26 underdogs in the first half and our model listed that as a 5-star bet since it projected them at +19.5. Early in the second quarter, Colgate even tied the score up at 7-7 before Stanford scored three consecutive touchdowns heading into halftime. It was a valiant effort to keep things close by the Patriot League underdogs and they did enough to win this bet.

LOUISIANA (-7) vs. SE LOUISIANA

MODEL PROJECTION: LOUISIANA -14

ACTUAL OUTCOME: LOUISIANA -17 (17-0)

Another FCS opponent, SE Louisiana, was in action at Louisiana (-7), but the model correctly gave the Ragin’ Cajuns a clear edge. The model projected Louisiana to be up at 14 at halftime and they ended up taking a 17-0 lead into the locker room. Louisiana was only penalized four times in the game (compared to eight penalties by their opponents) and also didn’t turn the ball over (while SE Louisiana threw two interceptions). Overall, this was another easy win for the model, which clearly found the correct edge in this lopsided matchup.

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