Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction

Penn State Nittany Lions Preview

It certainly was an uneasy feeling last weekend for Penn State fans when the third quarter ended against the Northwestern Wildcats. The No. 11 Nittany Lions led by just a touchdown against a far inferior 1-4 opponent at home. The pouring rain may have had something to do with that, but nevertheless, it was closer than it probably should have been. The good news for Penn State is that they still came away with a 17-7 victory in a sloppy game, and that keeps their hopes alive for the college football playoff at least for one more week. The team is undefeated at 5-0, but now they will face their toughest challenge yet at the Big House in Ann Arbor.

For the Nittany Lions, defense is the main calling card. Against Northwestern, they put on an absolute clinic in the downpour, holding the Wildcat rushing attack to a crazy-low 31 rushing yards on 28 carries. That type of sturdy defensive play is what has helped vault them to No. 10 in the AP poll. Penn State entered Week 6 ranked ninth in the nation with just 14.8 points allowed per game and fifth with only 82.2 rushing yards surrendered per contest. On offense, the team has its troubles at times, but they can put up some points. The Nittany Lions scored no fewer than 35 points in wins over the Purdue Boilermakers and Auburn Tigers. That is about as good as it gets for a team that had its doubts coming into the 2022 season. Now, that challenge I was talking about.

The defense will certainly be put to its ultimate test against the Wolverines in Week 7. Michigan arguably has the best rushing attack in the nation this season behind superstar Blake Corum. It certainly won't be a walk in the park like it has been up to this point, and we'll see just how good Penn State truly is when they face the Michigan offense.

Michigan Wolverines Preview

This will be a battle of two undefeated teams, as the Wolverines are still without a loss this season after they demolished the Indiana Hoosiers 31-10 on the road in Week 6. It has been your typical Michigan season up to this point, beating up on teams and pounding the rock to a 2-0 conference record. As I had mentioned in the above section, the main source of success for the Wolverines has come from their offensive backfield in the form of RB Blake Corum. He strengthened his case for the Heisman trophy with a fantastic performance in the win over the Hoosiers. Corum rushed for 124 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries, adding to his already impressive numbers in 2022. He's rushed 118 times for 735 yards and 11 TDs on the season so far.

Penn State’s run defense, as I mentioned earlier, is among the stingiest in the nation, but they haven't been tested yet by a rushing attack like that of Michigan’s. The Wolverines came into their Week 6 matchup against Indiana 16th nationally with 212.3 rushing yards per game, and that dwarfs anything the Nittany Lions have seen to this point. As long as the offensive line can hold their own blocking against the Penn State defensive front, they should be able to do some damage on the ground. QB J.J. McCarthy shouldn't be overlooked either, as he has been great for Michigan. He's thrown for 1,152 yards on 94-120 passing and 9 TDs.

Defensively, Michigan has struggled a bit, but they should be able to contain the Penn State offense a bit. The Nittany Lions can put up points, but they are very sloppy with the football. I don't care if it was a downpour, you can't fumble the ball four times in a game, and that is just what they did against Northwestern. Michigan can take advantage of that sloppy play.

My Prediction

Right now, the spread of this game is sitting at 7 at most sportsbooks. If you are going to give me a full touchdown with Penn State, I will certainly take that. The Nittany Lions defense won't be that leaky against Michigan, even if they aren't as good as they usually are. The offense should be able to do just enough against a questionable Wolverines defense to keep this within a TD. I also think the under could be a strong play as well. Michigan will want to run the ball against a good defense, which could result in a lot of time being taken up.

At +7, I like the Nittany Lions, and if you are so inclined to bet the total, I'll take the under 51.5.