Kiddy: My 5 Top Plays For Week 7
BetMGM's Chase Kiddy reveals his top five picks of the week
Week 7 of the college football calendar has arrived, and with it comes a new table of NCAAF odds.
Accordingly, I’ve got a fresh set of picks to hand out.
College Football Best Bets: Week 7 Predictions
After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my five best plays from the wider canon of college football odds.
I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM.
Last week’s picks went 3-2, which was our fourth straight winning week. The column is 14-6-1 over the last month.
Auburn at Ole Miss
It’s been my favorite spot of the weekly college football betting schedule. I’ve hit this pretty much every week of the season, and I’m not stopping now.
Ole Miss unders are 4-2 this season, thanks in part to a defense that is much better than the average college football fan realizes. Bettors see Lane Kiffin and the Rebels and think offense, but it’s the defense that’s actually been the strength of the team in 2022.
The Ole Miss defense – which ranks 31st in total defense and 28th in Football Outsiders’ Defensive FEI rankings – should have little trouble containing Auburn’s anemic offense.
Play: Auburn/Ole Miss Under 54.5
Iowa State at Texas
Iowa State has lost three straight games to Baylor, Kansas and Kansas State, but those three losses have come by just 11 combined points. This is an excellent buy-low on a .500 team.
Meanwhile, Texas is the ultimate sell-high following a highly visible beatdown of archrival Oklahoma in last weekend’s Red River game.
Next week, the Longhorns head to Stillwater for a game with major Big 12 title implications, which makes their sleepy 11 a.m. local kickoff against Iowa State a massive sandwich spot.
If this game was played two or three weeks ago, it’s somewhere between Texas -7 and Texas -9.5.
Instead, it’s Texas -16, which is a huge market correction. I’m getting a huge bucket of extra points here, which is just where we want to be with Matt Campbell and the Cyclones.
Play: Iowa State +16
Texas State at Troy
Texas State – arguably the worst team in the Sun Belt – just scored its biggest win in several years after its upset win over Appalachian State.
Now, it goes on the road to play the team App State beat on a Hail Mary: Troy.
And the Trojans are quite good! You may not have watched them this year, apart from an eight-second clip of Chase Brice throwing the ball 65 yards down the field, but the Trojans are one of two favorites to win the Sun Belt’s western division.
Unsurprisingly, Texas State is a popular dog after its Appalachian upset. More than 50% of tickets market-wide are taking the points with the Bobcats.
But aside from last week’s results, Texas State has consistently been one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt, and Troy – unlike App State – has a formidable defense.
The ability to get a sell-high spot against a team that Jeff Sagarin has at No. 140 in his Division 1 rankings is incredible.
It also doesn’t hurt that Troy would have covered a similar number in its win against Southern Miss last week. To be sure, USM is a far superior team than Texas State.
Play: Troy -16.5
USC at Utah (-3.5)
This is likely the biggest Pros vs. Joes betting spot of the week. More than 70% of market-wide tickets are backing the ultra-public Trojans, yet the line moved from its opening spot of Utah -3 down to Utah -3.5.
This is a clear signal for anyone experienced in college football betting odds. Utah is worth a bet on the reverse line movement alone.
Let’s go one step further, though. Put yourself in the sportsbook’s position. If you were setting a number and knew you would get a ton of action on USC no matter what, would you give USC a full three points?
Would you then move the line to give USC even more points, at +3.5, despite a high volume of action already on the Trojans?
The sportsbook is making a conscious decision to align itself with Utah this week, which means that you probably should, too.
Play: Utah -3.5
San Jose State at Fresno State
Fresno State has been lifeless ever since Jake Haener got hurt, but that’s not why I like this spot. The market hasn’t caught on to San Jose State as a top-level contender in the Mountain West.
Fresno went to Boise last week – it lost, 40-20 – and was a 10-point dog. Boise is a wildly average team this year.
In this spot, Fresno is only catching 8.5 points from the team that’s likely the current conference favorite. That’s just the market preferring brand names like Boise over good teams like SJSU.
It might be worth waiting until closer to Saturday to make sure Haener is staying on the sidelines for this game. However, everything I’ve read says that he’s not ready to come back, which means San Jose State is one of my firmest bets of the week.
Play: San Jose State -8.5
College Football Parlay
I got blown up in this spot last week after the App State loss. Womp womp. Let’s reset with a juiced four-teamer at -150.
- Buffalo -900
- Tulane -500
- South Alabama -900
- Notre Dame -800
Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.