Is Oklahoma Undervalued In 2024?

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

QB Dillon Gabriel has taken his leave from Oklahoma, which is a massive reason why their win total is sitting at 7.5 for this coming season. The standout QB took his talents to Oregon after a very successful season offensively last year, which has left question marks abound for how this offense will perform. While it is clear that the offense won't have nearly as much veteran experience as it did last year, and they have a new offensive coordinator in Seth Littrell, I don't see there being a huge difference in offensive production.

Littrell runs the air raid offense and concepts, as he did for years at North Texas as their head coach. New QB Jackson Arnold should transition into this offense pretty seamlessly, and the former five-star prospect has all of the tools you look for in a signal-caller to be successful. Oklahoma went out and got former Purdue WR Deion Burks from the transfer portal, who is a massive target and a huge get for the offense.

While I would expect it to take some time for this offense to find its groove, the good news is that they have a very soft start to their schedule to get the kinks worked out. Temple, Houston, and Tulane are not projected to be that great this year, which will help the new offensive pieces start to gel.

Defense Remains Strong

While the offense may be the biggest question mark, the defense should not be. Oklahoma returns 90% of experience on the defensive side of the ball, and this was a Sooner defense that was actually really good last season. They finished inside the top-30 in success rate, as well as finishing drives in 2023. Linebacker Danny Stutsman returning to the team was a gigantic plus for them, as he is one of the best pure tacklers in the league. Brent Venebales' defenses have always needed a great middle linebacker, and Stutsman returning just locks in their reliability for 2024.

They also added former TCU defensive lineman Damonic Williams, who will be a big help in the trenches. I think a win total of 7.5 is a bit low for the Sooners, and at a +100 price, I think it is worth a shot that they get at least eight.